Energy Update 2018
Energy Update 2018
Both the International Energy Agency and, not unsurprisingly, BP have been accused of a bias towards carbon – oil, coal and gas – in their reports and statistics. Nonetheless these do provide interesting insights into what is happening in the world energy sector and, by extension, the climate change arena. In very simple terms, burning oil, coal, gas, wood and biofuels generates carbon dioxide which cause global warming. On the other hand using the sun and wind for energy reduces the need to burn carboniferous fuels and helps stave off climate change.
The spreadsheet underlying the BP Review of World Energy 2018, published last month, starts with two tables covering primary sources of energy, country by country. Much as in the past, coal (48%), oil (29%) and natural gas (12%) provide the bulk of the world’s energy – and the carbon dioxide in our atmosphere. From an environmental point of view, this is obviously very depressing. However, there are some green shoots hidden in these tables.
Although the global economy is booming, the volume of carboniferous fuels consumed in 2017 was only slightly up on 2016, while the use of renewable energy increased by nearly 17%, albeit off a very small base. Also on the positive side, Portugal, Finland, Germany and Sweden all recorded renewables contributing more than 13% of their primary energy needs. China (22%), the USA (19.5%) and Germany (9.2%) are together responsible for just over half the world’s use of renewables for electricity generation. China has achieved a more than 40% compound growth rate for renewable energy usage over the past decade; if growth continues at this kind of rate renewables could start to make a significant dent in Chinese carbon fuel usage – and related pollution.
Hydroelectric and nuclear combined with renewables provided 69% of Norway’s energy needs – not surprising given their hydro schemes and high per capita percentage of electric cars – while Sweden (67%), Switzerland (48%), France (47%) and Finland (44%) are also well on their way to non-carbon glory. The trouble is that most of these are countries with small populations, while France has a large number of ageing nuclear power plants which will need to be replaced. Incidentally, although I’ve named several European countries, South America was the continent that fared best but that could be due to Brazil’s high usage of biofuels which should really be counted with the CO2 producing hydrocarbons.
BP records that solar generation has increased by 50% per annum over the past decade, slowing slightly to 35% in 2017. China (24%), the USA (18% despite the antics of Donald Trump and Scott Pruitt), Japan (14%) and Germany (9%) are together responsible for 65% of the world’s solar generation capacity. As prices per unit of electricity have dropped significantly over the past two years, so a flurry of solar megaprojects have been announced which will go into operation by 2020 so the 50% growth rate might even go up.
I am not clear whether BP has just counted the major solar generation plants around the world or has included all the small rooftop solar panels decorating roofs of houses, shops and factories. In Australia, for instance, more than 30% of homes now have their own solar panels and this is forecast to rise to 50% or more by 2021 when subsidies are phased out. Bangladesh has more than four million pay as you go basic solar systems installed on homes. Here in South Africa many of the low income houses built by the government have solar hot water systems.
According to BP power generated from wind in 2017 was more than twice that generated from solar. However, the compound growth rate over the past decade was only a much lower 22% dropping to 17% in 2017. China and the USA together accounted for nearly 50% of the wind power produced, well ahead of India, Spain, the United Kingdom and Brazil who made up another 20% together.
Interestingly I came across a graph last week going back ten years which showed starkly how growth of renewables is consistently under-forecast, while nuclear generation never meets projections. Bearing this in mind I did a simple calculation assuming renewable energy continues to grow at the present 16% per annum – by 2030 the amount of renewable energy generated would exceed that of either coal or oil, while by 2050 the amount of renewable energy would be more than four times the total energy used today! More spectacularly if both solar and wind generation were to continue growing at their 2017 rates, then by 2030 the total wind and solar generation would exceed the current usage of oil, coal and gas combined. And by 2050 the amount of renewable energy would far exceed the world’s needs – coal, oil, gas, nuclear and biofuels would all be redundant.
Now, as you know, taking the past and simply extrapolating it into the future is a dangerous pastime. However if one considers the steep drop in the price of renewables, ongoing improvements in technology and performance, the advent of electrical transport and moves by enlightened governments to hasten the phasing out of carbon, then maybe my forecasts are too low rather than too high. That’s certainly been the experience of far more professional pundits than me. Certainly cheap energy will reduce costs and improve living standards so we can at the same time expect to see a big upswing in demand for energy.
Both the International Energy Agency and, not unsurprisingly, BP have been accused of a bias towards carbon – oil, coal and gas – in their reports and statistics. Nonetheless these do provide interesting insights into what is happening in the world energy sector and, by extension, the climate change arena. In very simple terms, burning oil, coal, gas, wood and biofuels generates carbon dioxide which cause global warming. On the other hand using the sun and wind for energy reduces the need to burn carboniferous fuels and helps stave off climate change.
The spreadsheet underlying the BP Review of World Energy 2018, published last month, starts with two tables covering primary sources of energy, country by country. Much as in the past, coal (48%), oil (29%) and natural gas (12%) provide the bulk of the world’s energy – and the carbon dioxide in our atmosphere. From an environmental point of view, this is obviously very depressing. However, there are some green shoots hidden in these tables.
Although the global economy is booming, the volume of carboniferous fuels consumed in 2017 was only slightly up on 2016, while the use of renewable energy increased by nearly 17%, albeit off a very small base. Also on the positive side, Portugal, Finland, Germany and Sweden all recorded renewables contributing more than 13% of their primary energy needs. China (22%), the USA (19.5%) and Germany (9.2%) are together responsible for just over half the world’s use of renewables for electricity generation. China has achieved a more than 40% compound growth rate for renewable energy usage over the past decade; if growth continues at this kind of rate renewables could start to make a significant dent in Chinese carbon fuel usage – and related pollution.
Hydroelectric and nuclear combined with renewables provided 69% of Norway’s energy needs – not surprising given their hydro schemes and high per capita percentage of electric cars – while Sweden (67%), Switzerland (48%), France (47%) and Finland (44%) are also well on their way to non-carbon glory. The trouble is that most of these are countries with small populations, while France has a large number of ageing nuclear power plants which will need to be replaced. Incidentally, although I’ve named several European countries, South America was the continent that fared best but that could be due to Brazil’s high usage of biofuels which should really be counted with the CO2 producing hydrocarbons.
BP records that solar generation has increased by 50% per annum over the past decade, slowing slightly to 35% in 2017. China (24%), the USA (18% despite the antics of Donald Trump and Scott Pruitt), Japan (14%) and Germany (9%) are together responsible for 65% of the world’s solar generation capacity. As prices per unit of electricity have dropped significantly over the past two years, so a flurry of solar megaprojects have been announced which will go into operation by 2020 so the 50% growth rate might even go up.
I am not clear whether BP has just counted the major solar generation plants around the world or has included all the small rooftop solar panels decorating roofs of houses, shops and factories. In Australia, for instance, more than 30% of homes now have their own solar panels and this is forecast to rise to 50% or more by 2021 when subsidies are phased out. Bangladesh has more than four million pay as you go basic solar systems installed on homes. Here in South Africa many of the low income houses built by the government have solar hot water systems.
According to BP power generated from wind in 2017 was more than twice that generated from solar. However, the compound growth rate over the past decade was only a much lower 22% dropping to 17% in 2017. China and the USA together accounted for nearly 50% of the wind power produced, well ahead of India, Spain, the United Kingdom and Brazil who made up another 20% together.
Interestingly I came across a graph last week going back ten years which showed starkly how growth of renewables is consistently under-forecast, while nuclear generation never meets projections. Bearing this in mind I did a simple calculation assuming renewable energy continues to grow at the present 16% per annum – by 2030 the amount of renewable energy generated would exceed that of either coal or oil, while by 2050 the amount of renewable energy would be more than four times the total energy used today! More spectacularly if both solar and wind generation were to continue growing at their 2017 rates, then by 2030 the total wind and solar generation would exceed the current usage of oil, coal and gas combined. And by 2050 the amount of renewable energy would far exceed the world’s needs – coal, oil, gas, nuclear and biofuels would all be redundant.
Now, as you know, taking the past and simply extrapolating it into the future is a dangerous pastime. However if one considers the steep drop in the price of renewables, ongoing improvements in technology and performance, the advent of electrical transport and moves by enlightened governments to hasten the phasing out of carbon, then maybe my forecasts are too low rather than too high. That’s certainly been the experience of far more professional pundits than me. Certainly cheap energy will reduce costs and improve living standards so we can at the same time expect to see a big upswing in demand for energy.
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