Brian's Musings
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    • Brian's 2020 Newlsetters >
      • 28th June 2020 – Mulling a Covid Afterlife
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      • 19th April, 2020 – More stimulants for lockdown contemplation
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      • 23rd November 2019 - Another fascinating mix from around the world
      • 30th October 2019 - Where are we headed now?
      • 10th October 2019 - Another tour of the issues
      • 27th August 2019 -Brighter than usual
      • 2nd August 2019 - Mostly more gloom and doom
      • 5th July 2019 - Not much improvement anywhere
      • 19th June 2019 - Better late than neverNew Page
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      • 2nd April 2019 - Another Month of Mixed News
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      • 4th February 2019 - Trying to make sense of it all
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      • 26th October 2018 – The Case of the Treacherous Till Slip and Other Interesting Tales
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      • 21st September 2018 - The Information Flow Continues
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      • 28th February, 2018 - World Update
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      • 29th November 2017 - Guessing Our Future
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        • 15th January 2016 - A Taste of Red and White
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17th April 2016 – Brian’s Musings #5 – More Food for Thought




As you probably know, I read a lot of books about where the world might be headed. Generally I find they have three flaws. Firstly they are all too often written by someone in North America or the United Kingdom based on what he sees in his immediate vicinity; his observations are then extrapolated to the rest of the world. Then too, it’s as though they are written in a silo with next to no mention of topics covered in parallel silos. Finally, books written by journalists tend to be padded out with folksy anecdotes rather than homing in on the key facts, a habit no doubt honed in writing newspaper articles.


Feed Frenzy by Paul McMahon has none of these flaws. It is a beautifully written synopsis of the food industry which reads like a thriller. He starts with a brief history of food production. Economists have battled to produce a simple summary of world trade in food; by reducing the trade to flows of calories he is able to identify the major producers and consumers of food. As one would expect, the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and some EU countries are the traditional exports who have been joined by major players in South America and Asia. As middle class lifestyles take off, so China and South East Asian countries have become major importers.


Overall demand for food has risen as a result of a combination of growing population, richer diets, biofuels and wild weather. Taken together with ecological limits, food prices have more than doubled since 2004. Some interesting facts he throws in are that 50% of seafood today is farmed while 30% of food is lost before it even reaches the consumer, who bins another significant percentage. He spends a chapter examining the impact of land availability, yield gaps, energy (particularly biofuels), fertiliser production and water.


He then moves away from food production to examine the impact of national bans on exports, import and export tariffs and large scale hoarding, all of which can cause unnecessary distortions in the market. A further chapter is devoted to commodity speculation as financial giants increased their trades in agricultural futures way beyond the physical stocks in the market. In particular he examines the role of the five big commodity trading houses Cargill, Archer Daniels Midland, Louis Dreyfuss, Bunge and Glencore (which this week sold a major stake in its agricultural division), as well as the rising Asian challengers Noble, Olam and Wilmar.


Up till this point inefficient and impoverished Africa has not featured much in the discussion. Sub-Saharan Africa was identified as a potential future breadbasket for the world. However, the continent features strongly in his chapter on land grabs, mostly Arab and Asian countries buying into countries such as Sudan, Ethiopia, Madagascar and Mozambique, pushing the peasants off the land to make way for developments he believes are unsustainable. He emphasises that China is not part of these land grabs though reports from Australia this week highlight concern at the acreage owned there by Chinese interests.


While most observers are pessimistic that food production can keep pace with population growth, McMahon is much more optimistic. In his final chapter he outlines how we need to help small farmers in developing countries, behave ecologically correctly, reform financial markets and adapt to higher prices which will keep producers in business.


As I mentioned, he does not just stay in the food information silo but ventures into related areas such as health, energy, international trade and financial services. Feeding Frenzy was published just before the dramatic drop in oil prices which would have had the effect of reducing a major input cost and putting pressure on the viability of biofuels. Looking at his recommendations for the future I wondered that he hadn’t advocated phasing out the use of valuable agricultural land to grow tobacco and sugar given their adverse impact on health.


I hope this summary has given you more food for thought!


Useful References:


The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is an international scientific institute that conducts research into the critical issues of global environmental, economic, technological, and social change that we face in the twenty-first century.


OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2007-2016


Samsung Economic Research Institute (SERI) report New Food Security Strategies in the Age of Global Food Crises


Munich Re analysis of natural catastrophes in 2015


China in Australia

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  • Home
  • Brian's Blog
  • Musings
    • Brian's 2020 Newlsetters >
      • 28th June 2020 – Mulling a Covid Afterlife
      • 31st May 2020 - Unlocking your mind while in Lockdown
      • 19th April, 2020 – More stimulants for lockdown contemplation
      • 3rd April 2020 - PLanning Ahead in a Time of Plague
      • 19th March 2020 – More to Mull on in Splendid Isolation
      • 24th February, 2020 - The Corona Virus and Much More
      • 24th January 2020 - What changes likely in the new year?
    • Brian's 2019 Newsletters >
      • 23rd November 2019 - Another fascinating mix from around the world
      • 30th October 2019 - Where are we headed now?
      • 10th October 2019 - Another tour of the issues
      • 27th August 2019 -Brighter than usual
      • 2nd August 2019 - Mostly more gloom and doom
      • 5th July 2019 - Not much improvement anywhere
      • 19th June 2019 - Better late than neverNew Page
      • 27th April 2019 - More to make you think about the future
      • April 2019 Letters to the Editor of Business Day
      • 2nd April 2019 - Another Month of Mixed News
      • 27th February 2019 - More good news than bad
      • 4th February 2019 - Trying to make sense of it all
    • 2018 >
      • 29th December 2018 - Preparing for 2019
      • 3th November 2018 - Death by Hot Air and Other Cautionary Tales
      • 26th October 2018 – The Case of the Treacherous Till Slip and Other Interesting Tales
      • October 2018 - Feedback on Draft Integrated Resource Plan for South Africa
      • 21st September 2018 - The Information Flow Continues
      • 31st August 2018 - Reading for the first weekend of spring / autumn
      • 31st July 2018 - Watching the World
      • 13th July 2018 - Energy Update 2018
      • 31st May 2018 - Grime and Punishment
      • 20th April, 2018 - The Equaliser Conspiracy
      • 3rd April, 2018 - More Fascinating Facts and Figures
      • 28th February, 2018 - World Update
    • 2017 >
      • 29th November 2017 - Guessing Our Future
      • 29th July 2017 – Basic Income Grant
      • 26th July 2017 – Ideas for a Brighter South Africa
      • 3rd July 2017 - Another Energy Update
      • 8th May 2017 – Trucking and Selling
      • 12th April 2017 - False News Today
      • 22nd March 2017 - Predicting Speed of Change
      • 27th February 2017 - Growing Inequality
      • 11th January 2017 - Medical Data Mining
    • 2016 >
      • 13th December 2016 - American Irony
      • 25th November 2016 - Global Decision Making
      • 30th October 2016 - Climate Changes
      • 11th October 2016 - Musing Investments
      • 19th September 2016 - The Inexorable Five
      • 2nd September 2016 - Driving Forward
      • 17th August 2016 - Innovationv Update
      • 19th July 2016 - Powering Along
      • 4th July 2016 – An Eye to the Future
      • 10th June 2016 - Reverse Education
      • 20th May 2016 - More Minding P's and Q's
      • 5th May 2016 - A Leisurely Future
      • 17th April 2016 - More Food for Thought
      • 29th March 2016 – America’s Digital Colonisation of the World
      • 11th March 2016 - Measuring Life
      • 26th February 2016 - Growing Older, Growing More
      • 12th February 2016 – Retirement Reflections
      • 29th January 2016 - Just Four More Years to 2020 >
        • 15th January 2016 - A Taste of Red and White
  • Books