19th March 2020 – More to Mull on in Splendid Isolation
19th March 2020 – Brian’s Musings – More to Mull on in Splendid Isolation
In my February Musing, I suggested how the Corona Virus pandemic might impact each of the main topics I cover in my Musings. Since then we have all been overwhelmed by information and misinformation about the subject, so I plan to keep any mentions in my Musings to an absolute minimum. Nonetheless, as you sit mulling in isolation, you can reflect on how many of the nuggets of information I list below might have changed overnight as the world goes into emergency mode.
People Change:
Demographic studies in the United Kingdom showed that in the early 1900s, the probability of a baby reaching 100 was 1%. Today a new born has a 50% chance of living to 105. There were 3,600 centenarians in 1986. Today there are some 15,000.
Climate Change and the Environment:
According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, Europe has just experienced the hottest winter on record. The average temperature for December, January and February was 1.4C above the previous winter record, which was set in 2015-16. New regional climate records are usually passed by only a fraction of a degree. Europe’s winter was 3.4C hotter than the average from 1981-2010.
The polar ice caps are melting six times faster than in the 1990’s, according to the most complete analysis to date. The ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica is tracking the worst-case climate warming scenario set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The average annual loss of ice from Greenland and Antarctica over the past decade was 475 billion tonnes compared to the 81 billion tonnes a year lost in the 1990s. In total the two ice caps lost 6.4 trillion tonnes of ice from 1992 to 2017, with melting in Greenland responsible for 60% of that figure. Without rapid cuts to carbon emissions the analysis indicates there could be a rise in sea levels that would leave 400 million people exposed to coastal flooding each year by the end of the century.
World electricity demand in 2019 increased by the least in a decade due to low economic growth and mild winter months. According to climate thinktank Ember, during 2019, the world’s electrical power sector experienced its largest drop in CO2 emissions in at least 30 years as a 3% drop in global coal-fired electricity generation led to a 2% fall in CO2 power sector emissions. Coal generation collapsed in both the European Union and the United States in 2019, but increased in China.
United Kingdom CO2 emissions fell 2.9% in 2019 bringing the total reduction to 29% since 2010, even as the economy grew by 20%.
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis claims that emissions from the production and use of natural gas may have been significantly underestimated and that this has been obfuscated by a concerted misinformation campaign by the natural gas industry. Gas is worse than coal in the short term due to its release of methane into the atmosphere. A similar study published in Nature found that human-caused methane emissions had been systematically underestimated and that they may be up to 40% higher than first thought.
A Guardian investigation of the EU’s transparency register found that Exxon has spent € 37.2 million since 2010 lobbying the EU to soften EU climate policy. Shell spent € 36.5 million and BP € 18.1 million.
A new study by the European Environment Agency calculates 20% of Europeans are exposed to harmful levels of noise pollution, and this number is set to rise in the next decade, with road traffic the biggest culprit. Excessive noise can cause physical and mental illness, and is associated with higher levels of heart disease, stress and sleeplessness. About 12,000 premature deaths are caused by noise in Europe each year.
Low Cost Renewable Energy:
The world’s largest Tesla megapack battery project has been approved for California. It has 10 times the capacity of South Australia’s ground-breaking Hornsdale Power Reserve to store and dispatch wind and solar energy.
The British government has lifted its block on new onshore windfarm subsidies.
In the dead of the northern hemisphere winter, renewable energy (utility-scale solar, wind and hydropower) generated more electricity than did coal plants. This has never happened before.
Throughout the world, energy companies and governments are now planning 499 GW of coal-fired capacity, including projects that have been announced and permitted, as well as plants that are now under construction. The Carbon Tracker Initiative calculates that US$ 638 billion of investments in new coal assets could be lost if the projects are actually built, because they will struggle to compete on cost with renewables. More than half of the world’s current fleet of coal-fired generators are already generating power that is more costly than new-build renewable energy projects. As much as 80 per cent of the world’s coal power stations will need to close by 2030 to reach the 1.5°C goal, which is included within the Paris Agreement.
By 2030, more than 90% of the coal capacity in Europe will cost more to operate than it will cost to install new wind and solar projects. China will rank second when 70% of power stations will become uneconomical. This is followed by Australia, India, and the United States, all ranging around 50%. Japan and the Asia-Pacific region, will see less than 10% of its coal power fleet losing its competitive edge to wind and solar.
Mass Data Mining and Storage:
Google parent Alphabet has invented a fish recognition system allowing underwater cameras to track each individual fish in huge fish farms.
America’s FCC is preparing to fine mobile carriers US$ 200 million for selling customer location data.
Australia privacy watchdog is suing Facebook over data breaches related to the Cambridge Analytica scandal.
Automation Based Unemployment:
British wage growth has dropped from 4.1% in April 2019 to 2.8% with pay packets still smaller than they were a decade ago. Total pay is £503 a week compared to the £522 a week workers took home before the 2008 financial crisis. The number of part-timers who can’t find full-time jobs is rising by 18,000 a month. In the middle of 2018, there were 781,000 people on zero-hours contracts. There are now 974,000. In 2000 around 11.7% of those employed set up businesses on their own, where they earn considerably less than those with full-time jobs. That number is now 15.2%, the highest on record.
Autonomous Electric Vehicles:
Tesla has made a milestone 1,000,000 electric cars, In the USA, Tesla sold more Model 3 electric sedans than all other electric vehicles combined in 2019.
Volkswagen has unveiled an ambitious plan to overtake Tesla in the electric vehicle market. VW aims to produce 26 million emission free vehicles in the next nine years.
Uber's self-driving cars are about to be reintroduced on San Francisco streets. They will be in full autonomous mode, but come with safety operators and will only drive during daylight hours.
According to the IEA, global oil demand is expected to decline in 2020 for the first time since 2009, as the impact of the coronavirus continues to spread around the world, constricting both travel and broader economic activity. Global oil demand fell by approximately 2.5% in the first quarter of 2020, in large part to production slowing dramatically in Libya.
New developments in the oil world could change this forecast. Just 15 years ago, the USA was one of the world’s largest importers of crude oil. Then came the fracking revolution where oil companies used new drilling technology to access small pockets of oil and gas. As a result, America moved from being a net importer to a net exporter, taking market share from Russia and OPEC who cooperated to reduce output and keep oil prices close to US$ 100 per barrel. However, fracking is expensive and the fracking companies have mountains of debt. As demand for oil dropped, OPEC and Russia discussed further production cuts. Instead Russia decided to increase production to put American fracking companies out of business and Saudi Arabia decided to follow suit. Oil prices have dropped to around US$ 30 per barrel.
Increasing Inequality:
An Australian study has found that it is wealthier citizens who own their own homes who can afford to install domestic solar power and battery systems. Less fortunate Australians who live in blocks of flats and rental accommodation are unable to benefit from the low cost electricity provided by rooftop solar. The system is further destabilised as the wealthy abandon their suburban homes during hours of sunshine to work in city centres where solar on highrises is not commonplace.
In my February Musing, I suggested how the Corona Virus pandemic might impact each of the main topics I cover in my Musings. Since then we have all been overwhelmed by information and misinformation about the subject, so I plan to keep any mentions in my Musings to an absolute minimum. Nonetheless, as you sit mulling in isolation, you can reflect on how many of the nuggets of information I list below might have changed overnight as the world goes into emergency mode.
People Change:
Demographic studies in the United Kingdom showed that in the early 1900s, the probability of a baby reaching 100 was 1%. Today a new born has a 50% chance of living to 105. There were 3,600 centenarians in 1986. Today there are some 15,000.
Climate Change and the Environment:
According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, Europe has just experienced the hottest winter on record. The average temperature for December, January and February was 1.4C above the previous winter record, which was set in 2015-16. New regional climate records are usually passed by only a fraction of a degree. Europe’s winter was 3.4C hotter than the average from 1981-2010.
The polar ice caps are melting six times faster than in the 1990’s, according to the most complete analysis to date. The ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica is tracking the worst-case climate warming scenario set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The average annual loss of ice from Greenland and Antarctica over the past decade was 475 billion tonnes compared to the 81 billion tonnes a year lost in the 1990s. In total the two ice caps lost 6.4 trillion tonnes of ice from 1992 to 2017, with melting in Greenland responsible for 60% of that figure. Without rapid cuts to carbon emissions the analysis indicates there could be a rise in sea levels that would leave 400 million people exposed to coastal flooding each year by the end of the century.
World electricity demand in 2019 increased by the least in a decade due to low economic growth and mild winter months. According to climate thinktank Ember, during 2019, the world’s electrical power sector experienced its largest drop in CO2 emissions in at least 30 years as a 3% drop in global coal-fired electricity generation led to a 2% fall in CO2 power sector emissions. Coal generation collapsed in both the European Union and the United States in 2019, but increased in China.
United Kingdom CO2 emissions fell 2.9% in 2019 bringing the total reduction to 29% since 2010, even as the economy grew by 20%.
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis claims that emissions from the production and use of natural gas may have been significantly underestimated and that this has been obfuscated by a concerted misinformation campaign by the natural gas industry. Gas is worse than coal in the short term due to its release of methane into the atmosphere. A similar study published in Nature found that human-caused methane emissions had been systematically underestimated and that they may be up to 40% higher than first thought.
A Guardian investigation of the EU’s transparency register found that Exxon has spent € 37.2 million since 2010 lobbying the EU to soften EU climate policy. Shell spent € 36.5 million and BP € 18.1 million.
A new study by the European Environment Agency calculates 20% of Europeans are exposed to harmful levels of noise pollution, and this number is set to rise in the next decade, with road traffic the biggest culprit. Excessive noise can cause physical and mental illness, and is associated with higher levels of heart disease, stress and sleeplessness. About 12,000 premature deaths are caused by noise in Europe each year.
Low Cost Renewable Energy:
The world’s largest Tesla megapack battery project has been approved for California. It has 10 times the capacity of South Australia’s ground-breaking Hornsdale Power Reserve to store and dispatch wind and solar energy.
The British government has lifted its block on new onshore windfarm subsidies.
In the dead of the northern hemisphere winter, renewable energy (utility-scale solar, wind and hydropower) generated more electricity than did coal plants. This has never happened before.
Throughout the world, energy companies and governments are now planning 499 GW of coal-fired capacity, including projects that have been announced and permitted, as well as plants that are now under construction. The Carbon Tracker Initiative calculates that US$ 638 billion of investments in new coal assets could be lost if the projects are actually built, because they will struggle to compete on cost with renewables. More than half of the world’s current fleet of coal-fired generators are already generating power that is more costly than new-build renewable energy projects. As much as 80 per cent of the world’s coal power stations will need to close by 2030 to reach the 1.5°C goal, which is included within the Paris Agreement.
By 2030, more than 90% of the coal capacity in Europe will cost more to operate than it will cost to install new wind and solar projects. China will rank second when 70% of power stations will become uneconomical. This is followed by Australia, India, and the United States, all ranging around 50%. Japan and the Asia-Pacific region, will see less than 10% of its coal power fleet losing its competitive edge to wind and solar.
Mass Data Mining and Storage:
Google parent Alphabet has invented a fish recognition system allowing underwater cameras to track each individual fish in huge fish farms.
America’s FCC is preparing to fine mobile carriers US$ 200 million for selling customer location data.
Australia privacy watchdog is suing Facebook over data breaches related to the Cambridge Analytica scandal.
Automation Based Unemployment:
British wage growth has dropped from 4.1% in April 2019 to 2.8% with pay packets still smaller than they were a decade ago. Total pay is £503 a week compared to the £522 a week workers took home before the 2008 financial crisis. The number of part-timers who can’t find full-time jobs is rising by 18,000 a month. In the middle of 2018, there were 781,000 people on zero-hours contracts. There are now 974,000. In 2000 around 11.7% of those employed set up businesses on their own, where they earn considerably less than those with full-time jobs. That number is now 15.2%, the highest on record.
Autonomous Electric Vehicles:
Tesla has made a milestone 1,000,000 electric cars, In the USA, Tesla sold more Model 3 electric sedans than all other electric vehicles combined in 2019.
Volkswagen has unveiled an ambitious plan to overtake Tesla in the electric vehicle market. VW aims to produce 26 million emission free vehicles in the next nine years.
Uber's self-driving cars are about to be reintroduced on San Francisco streets. They will be in full autonomous mode, but come with safety operators and will only drive during daylight hours.
According to the IEA, global oil demand is expected to decline in 2020 for the first time since 2009, as the impact of the coronavirus continues to spread around the world, constricting both travel and broader economic activity. Global oil demand fell by approximately 2.5% in the first quarter of 2020, in large part to production slowing dramatically in Libya.
New developments in the oil world could change this forecast. Just 15 years ago, the USA was one of the world’s largest importers of crude oil. Then came the fracking revolution where oil companies used new drilling technology to access small pockets of oil and gas. As a result, America moved from being a net importer to a net exporter, taking market share from Russia and OPEC who cooperated to reduce output and keep oil prices close to US$ 100 per barrel. However, fracking is expensive and the fracking companies have mountains of debt. As demand for oil dropped, OPEC and Russia discussed further production cuts. Instead Russia decided to increase production to put American fracking companies out of business and Saudi Arabia decided to follow suit. Oil prices have dropped to around US$ 30 per barrel.
Increasing Inequality:
An Australian study has found that it is wealthier citizens who own their own homes who can afford to install domestic solar power and battery systems. Less fortunate Australians who live in blocks of flats and rental accommodation are unable to benefit from the low cost electricity provided by rooftop solar. The system is further destabilised as the wealthy abandon their suburban homes during hours of sunshine to work in city centres where solar on highrises is not commonplace.
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