Brian's Musings
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  • Musings
    • Brian's 2020 Newlsetters >
      • 28th June 2020 – Mulling a Covid Afterlife
      • 31st May 2020 - Unlocking your mind while in Lockdown
      • 19th April, 2020 – More stimulants for lockdown contemplation
      • 3rd April 2020 - PLanning Ahead in a Time of Plague
      • 19th March 2020 – More to Mull on in Splendid Isolation
      • 24th February, 2020 - The Corona Virus and Much More
      • 24th January 2020 - What changes likely in the new year?
    • Brian's 2019 Newsletters >
      • 23rd November 2019 - Another fascinating mix from around the world
      • 30th October 2019 - Where are we headed now?
      • 10th October 2019 - Another tour of the issues
      • 27th August 2019 -Brighter than usual
      • 2nd August 2019 - Mostly more gloom and doom
      • 5th July 2019 - Not much improvement anywhere
      • 19th June 2019 - Better late than neverNew Page
      • 27th April 2019 - More to make you think about the future
      • April 2019 Letters to the Editor of Business Day
      • 2nd April 2019 - Another Month of Mixed News
      • 27th February 2019 - More good news than bad
      • 4th February 2019 - Trying to make sense of it all
    • 2018 >
      • 29th December 2018 - Preparing for 2019
      • 3th November 2018 - Death by Hot Air and Other Cautionary Tales
      • 26th October 2018 – The Case of the Treacherous Till Slip and Other Interesting Tales
      • October 2018 - Feedback on Draft Integrated Resource Plan for South Africa
      • 21st September 2018 - The Information Flow Continues
      • 31st August 2018 - Reading for the first weekend of spring / autumn
      • 31st July 2018 - Watching the World
      • 13th July 2018 - Energy Update 2018
      • 31st May 2018 - Grime and Punishment
      • 20th April, 2018 - The Equaliser Conspiracy
      • 3rd April, 2018 - More Fascinating Facts and Figures
      • 28th February, 2018 - World Update
    • 2017 >
      • 29th November 2017 - Guessing Our Future
      • 29th July 2017 – Basic Income Grant
      • 26th July 2017 – Ideas for a Brighter South Africa
      • 3rd July 2017 - Another Energy Update
      • 8th May 2017 – Trucking and Selling
      • 12th April 2017 - False News Today
      • 22nd March 2017 - Predicting Speed of Change
      • 27th February 2017 - Growing Inequality
      • 11th January 2017 - Medical Data Mining
    • 2016 >
      • 13th December 2016 - American Irony
      • 25th November 2016 - Global Decision Making
      • 30th October 2016 - Climate Changes
      • 11th October 2016 - Musing Investments
      • 19th September 2016 - The Inexorable Five
      • 2nd September 2016 - Driving Forward
      • 17th August 2016 - Innovationv Update
      • 19th July 2016 - Powering Along
      • 4th July 2016 – An Eye to the Future
      • 10th June 2016 - Reverse Education
      • 20th May 2016 - More Minding P's and Q's
      • 5th May 2016 - A Leisurely Future
      • 17th April 2016 - More Food for Thought
      • 29th March 2016 – America’s Digital Colonisation of the World
      • 11th March 2016 - Measuring Life
      • 26th February 2016 - Growing Older, Growing More
      • 12th February 2016 – Retirement Reflections
      • 29th January 2016 - Just Four More Years to 2020 >
        • 15th January 2016 - A Taste of Red and White
  • Books

Another fascinating mix from around the world

23rd November 2019 - Another fascinating mix from around the world

People Change:

 
The life expectancy of American men has declined slightly every year between 2014 and 2017, partly as a result of rising death rates from drug overdoses, deaths by suicide, and alcohol-related diseases like cirrhosis.
 
America’s Argonne National Laboratory has installed a computer containing the world’s most powerful chip which will use artificial intelligence techniques to develop precision cancer drugs.
 
It turns out that Canada’s much admired medical system also has the highest rate among developed countries of medical items being left inside patients after operations, according to a study from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
 
HSBC Global Research predicts climate change will contribute to a five-fold increase in the cost of public health, as higher temperatures drive increases in the risk of heatstroke, dehydration and respiratory problems, as well as turbo-charging the growth of some diseases and illnesses. In addition, an older, vulnerable, population will lead to a significantly harder task for health care services, as the impacts of climate change will have a disproportionate impact on the older population. They concluded that the health costs of the world’s fastest-growing economies could reach almost US$ 10 trillion a year by 2050.
 
Climate Change and the Environment:
 
Scientists predict that this year’s record Indian Ocean dipole threatens to reappear more regularly and in a more extreme form as sea surface temperatures rise. The dipole causes the sea surface off the coast of Africa to warm up, provoking increased rains, while temperatures off Australia fall, leading to drier weather.
 
The extensive Australian bush fires are being attributed to climate change while New Delhi is engulfed in its worst smog ever.
 
Global climate finance hit a record high of $US 612 billion in 2017, according to CPI advisers, but fell back 11% in 2018.
 
Landmark climate legislation has passed in New Zealand parliament, with historic cross-party support, committing the nation to reduce its carbon emissions to zero by 2050 and meet its commitments under the Paris climate accords.
 
A new study in Nature Communications predicts that land that is currently home to 300 million people will flood at least once a year by 2050 unless carbon emissions are cut significantly and coastal defences strengthened. This is far above the previous estimate of 80 million.
 
The International Energy Agency estimated that the amount of methane, which has a far more powerful effect on global temperatures than carbon dioxide, seeping from new and disused coalmines may have reached just under 40 million tonnes in 2018, equivalent to carbon dioxide emissions from the international aviation and shipping sectors combined.
 
The global climate crisis could lead to more renewable electricity being generated by wind farms as
shifting ocean circulation patterns seem to have triggered a rapid increase in wind speeds over the last decade.
 
Low Cost Renewable Energy
 
German PV industry veteran Karl-Heinz Remmers predicts solar will offer 20% more output for 25% lower module costs within 15 months.
 
Heliogen, has unveiled solar technology to provide industrial heat for the production of cement, steel and petrochemicals. The company uses artificial intelligence and a large array of mirrors to reflect sunlight to a single target and generate temperatures greater than 1,000°C. German steel producer Thyssenkrupp completed the world-first successful demonstration of using renewable hydrogen to make steel, rather than coal. An October 2019 report from Columbia University found that burning fossil fuels to produce heat for industrial processes produces about 10% of global carbon dioxide emissions, more than all the cars in the world.
 
The Tesla big battery in South Australia, the world’s largest, is getting a 50% capacity upgrade. Aussie
billionaires Mike Cannon Brookes and Twiggy Forrest are backing a solar and battery project in Northern Territory, which will be 50 times bigger than any other solar plant built in Australia to date, with a battery 150 times bigger than the Tesla big battery. (And all this despite a government that believes in coal but not climate change).
 
Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis analysts found that a cross-section of 38 publicly-traded oil and gas companies involved in the American fracking industry collectively spent $1.3 billion more on new capital projects during the quarter than they gained from selling product as the sector extended its ten year record of not making money from fracking. Over the preceding year, the companies lost a combined US$ 4.9 billion in negative cash flows.
 
According to the EIA, in August 2019, American utilities generated 18% less power from coal than in August of 2018, marking the sixth month in 2019 with a decline of more than 10 percent. Overall for the year, coal-generated power has fallen by 13.9%. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, less than 600 million tons of coal were shipped to the U.S. power sector last year, the lowest volume since 1983. Coal’s share of the national power-generation is expected to fall to just 22% in 2020 from 48% in 2008. Murray Energy, the largest privately-held coal company in America, voluntarily filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in federal courts, the sixth major American coal company to file for bankruptcy this year, with three others having filed in 2017 and 2018. (And all this also despite another government that believes in oil and coal but not climate change).
 
According to Carbon Tracker, 79% of the European Union’s coal power fleet runs at a loss, and will lose €6.57 billion this year. Hard coal electricity generation across the EU to date is down 39% on 2018 and lignite use down 20%. (I don’t think these governments will have been taken by surprise).
 
Mass Data Mining and Storage
 
The battle to corral all the world’s personal data continues. Google signed a deal with Ascension, America’s second-largest hospital system, to collect and analyse millions of Americans’ personal health data. Google has also purchased Fitbit and signed an agreement with Citibank and a San Francisco University credit union to provide financial services – and collect yet more data.
 
Apple just released an app that tracks your heart, hearing, and menstrual cycles. Apple, too, is now involved in providing personalised financial services in partnership with Goldman Sachs.
 
Automation Based Unemployment
 
Researchers at the Brookings Institution analysed the text of AI patent and job descriptions, and quantified the overlap in order to identify the kinds of tasks and occupations likely to be affected by the implementation of new technologies. They concluded that AI will be a significant factor in the future work lives of managers, supervisors, and analysts, especially white-collar workers in law firms, marketing departments, publishing and computer programming.
 
Another fascinating study from Brookings showed that over the last forty years the US and other industrialized economies have experienced a pronounced drop in the fraction of the population working in middle-waged jobs. Since employment growth has been weighted toward the upper- and lower-tails of the wage distribution at the expense of the middle, this phenomenon has become known as job polarization. This change has meant the loss of job opportunities in occupations which are routine in nature and therefore easily automated.
 
http://www.brookings.edu
 
McKinsey reported that 58% of respondents in a survey say their companies are using AI in at least one process or product, up from 47% in the 2018 survey. The fastest increase was in retail, where 60% reported AI deployment in 2019, versus just 35% in 2018. About one third of McKinsey’s respondents said they expected AI to lead them to cut their workforce over the next three years. Automotive and telecom companies expect the deepest AI-related jobs cuts. Respondents are most likely to report revenue growth from AI deployment in marketing and sales, product and service development, and supply-chain management. Cost decreases mostly impact manufacturing.
 
https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/artificial-intelligence/global-ai-survey-ai-proves-its-worth-but-few-scale-impact
 
Researchers from the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in Troy, New York, claim to have 3D-printed skin that’s alive and has blood vessels. Elsewhere, A giant 3D printer has been used to build a boat
 
Autonomous Electric Vehicles
 
Nearly 200,000 all-electric vehicles were sold in European Union from January to the end of September 2019, with 73,000 of those sold in the third quarter compared to just 32,000 in the same period of 2018.
 
Tesla announced plans to build a Gigafactory near Berlin in Germany.
 
Increasing Inequality
 
New research shows Americans are working more as they grow older. The share of people 55 and older in the workforce has increased by around 40% since the mid-1990s. The so-called retirement slowdown has meant a 30% rise in the share of younger workers in low-skill jobs between 1980 and 2017.
 
New York’s Department of Financial Services launched an investigation into Goldman Sachs for potential credit discrimination by gender by giving male applicants for Apple Cards higher credit limits than women with the same profile.
 
Elizabeth Warren and others have provoked a lively debate by proposing higher corporate taxes and taxes on the wealthy to fund universal health care and climate change mitigation. In a fascinating overview of the debate, the Economic Policy Institute found that claims that taxes on millionaires and billionaires will slow economic growth are fundamentally flawed.
 
https://www.epi.org/blog/analyses-claiming-that-taxes-on-millionaires-and-billionaires-will-slow-economic-growth-are-fundamentally-flawed/
 
Southern Africa
 
African microgrid company PowerGen has closed its series B funding round raising sufficient funds to bring power to one million people in sub-Saharan Africa. PV Magazine has provided a thought provoking overview of offgrid African power and how it is being linked to cell phone and online payment services.
 
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/11/23/the-weekend-read-offgrid-goes-global/
 
According to the International Diabetes Foundation, 4.5 million South African adults have diabetes, 12.7% of the country’s adults. By 2040 diabetes is forecast to be South Africa’s leading cause of death.
 
Stats South Africa’s new report, Inequality Trends in South Africa, showed that the top earning 10% of employed adults increased their earnings from 5.8 times the average of the lowest 40% in 2011 to 9.7 times in 2015. The unemployment rate for black people was four times higher than that of whites. Since 2006, the country’s Gini coefficient has declined from 0.72 to 0.67.
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  • Home
  • Brian's Blog
  • Musings
    • Brian's 2020 Newlsetters >
      • 28th June 2020 – Mulling a Covid Afterlife
      • 31st May 2020 - Unlocking your mind while in Lockdown
      • 19th April, 2020 – More stimulants for lockdown contemplation
      • 3rd April 2020 - PLanning Ahead in a Time of Plague
      • 19th March 2020 – More to Mull on in Splendid Isolation
      • 24th February, 2020 - The Corona Virus and Much More
      • 24th January 2020 - What changes likely in the new year?
    • Brian's 2019 Newsletters >
      • 23rd November 2019 - Another fascinating mix from around the world
      • 30th October 2019 - Where are we headed now?
      • 10th October 2019 - Another tour of the issues
      • 27th August 2019 -Brighter than usual
      • 2nd August 2019 - Mostly more gloom and doom
      • 5th July 2019 - Not much improvement anywhere
      • 19th June 2019 - Better late than neverNew Page
      • 27th April 2019 - More to make you think about the future
      • April 2019 Letters to the Editor of Business Day
      • 2nd April 2019 - Another Month of Mixed News
      • 27th February 2019 - More good news than bad
      • 4th February 2019 - Trying to make sense of it all
    • 2018 >
      • 29th December 2018 - Preparing for 2019
      • 3th November 2018 - Death by Hot Air and Other Cautionary Tales
      • 26th October 2018 – The Case of the Treacherous Till Slip and Other Interesting Tales
      • October 2018 - Feedback on Draft Integrated Resource Plan for South Africa
      • 21st September 2018 - The Information Flow Continues
      • 31st August 2018 - Reading for the first weekend of spring / autumn
      • 31st July 2018 - Watching the World
      • 13th July 2018 - Energy Update 2018
      • 31st May 2018 - Grime and Punishment
      • 20th April, 2018 - The Equaliser Conspiracy
      • 3rd April, 2018 - More Fascinating Facts and Figures
      • 28th February, 2018 - World Update
    • 2017 >
      • 29th November 2017 - Guessing Our Future
      • 29th July 2017 – Basic Income Grant
      • 26th July 2017 – Ideas for a Brighter South Africa
      • 3rd July 2017 - Another Energy Update
      • 8th May 2017 – Trucking and Selling
      • 12th April 2017 - False News Today
      • 22nd March 2017 - Predicting Speed of Change
      • 27th February 2017 - Growing Inequality
      • 11th January 2017 - Medical Data Mining
    • 2016 >
      • 13th December 2016 - American Irony
      • 25th November 2016 - Global Decision Making
      • 30th October 2016 - Climate Changes
      • 11th October 2016 - Musing Investments
      • 19th September 2016 - The Inexorable Five
      • 2nd September 2016 - Driving Forward
      • 17th August 2016 - Innovationv Update
      • 19th July 2016 - Powering Along
      • 4th July 2016 – An Eye to the Future
      • 10th June 2016 - Reverse Education
      • 20th May 2016 - More Minding P's and Q's
      • 5th May 2016 - A Leisurely Future
      • 17th April 2016 - More Food for Thought
      • 29th March 2016 – America’s Digital Colonisation of the World
      • 11th March 2016 - Measuring Life
      • 26th February 2016 - Growing Older, Growing More
      • 12th February 2016 – Retirement Reflections
      • 29th January 2016 - Just Four More Years to 2020 >
        • 15th January 2016 - A Taste of Red and White
  • Books