Brian's Musings
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    • Brian's 2020 Newlsetters >
      • 28th June 2020 – Mulling a Covid Afterlife
      • 31st May 2020 - Unlocking your mind while in Lockdown
      • 19th April, 2020 – More stimulants for lockdown contemplation
      • 3rd April 2020 - PLanning Ahead in a Time of Plague
      • 19th March 2020 – More to Mull on in Splendid Isolation
      • 24th February, 2020 - The Corona Virus and Much More
      • 24th January 2020 - What changes likely in the new year?
    • Brian's 2019 Newsletters >
      • 23rd November 2019 - Another fascinating mix from around the world
      • 30th October 2019 - Where are we headed now?
      • 10th October 2019 - Another tour of the issues
      • 27th August 2019 -Brighter than usual
      • 2nd August 2019 - Mostly more gloom and doom
      • 5th July 2019 - Not much improvement anywhere
      • 19th June 2019 - Better late than neverNew Page
      • 27th April 2019 - More to make you think about the future
      • April 2019 Letters to the Editor of Business Day
      • 2nd April 2019 - Another Month of Mixed News
      • 27th February 2019 - More good news than bad
      • 4th February 2019 - Trying to make sense of it all
    • 2018 >
      • 29th December 2018 - Preparing for 2019
      • 3th November 2018 - Death by Hot Air and Other Cautionary Tales
      • 26th October 2018 – The Case of the Treacherous Till Slip and Other Interesting Tales
      • October 2018 - Feedback on Draft Integrated Resource Plan for South Africa
      • 21st September 2018 - The Information Flow Continues
      • 31st August 2018 - Reading for the first weekend of spring / autumn
      • 31st July 2018 - Watching the World
      • 13th July 2018 - Energy Update 2018
      • 31st May 2018 - Grime and Punishment
      • 20th April, 2018 - The Equaliser Conspiracy
      • 3rd April, 2018 - More Fascinating Facts and Figures
      • 28th February, 2018 - World Update
    • 2017 >
      • 29th November 2017 - Guessing Our Future
      • 29th July 2017 – Basic Income Grant
      • 26th July 2017 – Ideas for a Brighter South Africa
      • 3rd July 2017 - Another Energy Update
      • 8th May 2017 – Trucking and Selling
      • 12th April 2017 - False News Today
      • 22nd March 2017 - Predicting Speed of Change
      • 27th February 2017 - Growing Inequality
      • 11th January 2017 - Medical Data Mining
    • 2016 >
      • 13th December 2016 - American Irony
      • 25th November 2016 - Global Decision Making
      • 30th October 2016 - Climate Changes
      • 11th October 2016 - Musing Investments
      • 19th September 2016 - The Inexorable Five
      • 2nd September 2016 - Driving Forward
      • 17th August 2016 - Innovationv Update
      • 19th July 2016 - Powering Along
      • 4th July 2016 – An Eye to the Future
      • 10th June 2016 - Reverse Education
      • 20th May 2016 - More Minding P's and Q's
      • 5th May 2016 - A Leisurely Future
      • 17th April 2016 - More Food for Thought
      • 29th March 2016 – America’s Digital Colonisation of the World
      • 11th March 2016 - Measuring Life
      • 26th February 2016 - Growing Older, Growing More
      • 12th February 2016 – Retirement Reflections
      • 29th January 2016 - Just Four More Years to 2020 >
        • 15th January 2016 - A Taste of Red and White
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global decision making

Global Decision Making
 
I’ve started to worry about how mankind makes decisions, specially on big issues that affect just about everyone on the planet.
 
As a post graduate student, I spent time as part of the team designing the system to manage the refuelling of England's Dungeness and Hinckley Point nuclear reactors.  In essence, there were four parts to the system. Measurement devices throughout the plant measured temperatures, pressures, flow rates and other variables. Because there was always the chance of a malfunction, there was built in redundancy and a problem monitoring system to identify aberrations.
 
The next part of the system analysed all the data feeds and formed a composite picture of the current status. This was then used by the next component of the system to predict what changes to flow rates, pressures, speed of movement of rods in and out of the core and other controllable variables were needed in order to ensure the safe continuation of the refuelling process. Finally a system of valves, motors and other devices was activated in order to carry out the next stage of the process.
 
More than forty years have elapsed since those reactors went live and to my knowledge there have been no refuelling mishaps even though the technology used is decidedly primitive by today’s standards.
 
Now the world in which we live is many, many orders of magnitude more complicated than a nuclear power plant. However, as I observe the complexity and the decision making required, I sometimes think the world needs a new control system, rather than the one we have today which was forged a century or two ago in a simpler age where man did not overwhelm the earth like it does today.
 
Already the data collection systems are in place capturing personal purchasing, earning, location and health data; corporate financial and share trading information; international trade data; temperatures and weather from around the globe; legal and other documents; research reports; personal behavioural characteristics based on our use of social media; and a whole lot more.
 
Data mining algorithms and supercomputers allow this mass of data to be sifted and analysed to identify problems and trends, challenges and opportunities. Sophisticated computer models allow alternative paths to the future to be identified and evaluated. In some areas the systems go even further and initiate electronic action such as automated buying and selling. The Internet makes much of this information available at the click of a mouse anywhere in the world.
 
Now, with all this information and analysis at our fingertips you would think mankind’s decision making would be superb. However, there’s a huge weakness in the process – we the people. I have made a stab at identifying some of our shortcomings.
 
The first is the tendency to simply follow our gut and ignore any contra indications. The joint American and British decision to invade Iraq despite clear evidence of Saddam Hussein not having weapons of mass destruction is a case in point and just look at the aftermath – carnage throughout the Middle East, the rise of ISIS, terrorist attacks across Europe and, now, the surge of migrants.
 
Another problem is the inadvertent or deliberate creation of misinformation which, given the power of Google, Facebook and Twitter can be transmitted to billions in seconds. In days gone by investigative journalists were able to dig into matters and sift out the garbage; as advertising moves to the internet, traditional media are having to cut staff and corners. In the popular media, propaganda driven by vested, religious or sectional interests is replacing news. And anyway, people prefer the information passed on by their nearest and dearest friends and net acquaintances. Too many seem blind to the need for reliable, unbiased information. The climate change arena is one particular area too important for myths to predominate.

If a retiree like me has trouble staying abreast of the major issues facing the world, what about people with full time jobs who return each night to homes full of children clamouring for attention? Take the issue of livelihoods for instance. Radical politicians are blaming globalisation and immigrants for job losses and stagnant incomes. But are those really the causes? What about the rise of the robot or the introduction of tax systems designed by rich lawmakers funded by even richer magnates to favour the super-rich?

I have always thought of democracy as a great way to get the best results but recently I have become less certain. In democracies political candidates, most often lawyers with no technical background, are empowered to make decisions for which they are not equipped. These candidates always have a platform; if an issue, such as abortion, is all important to you, then you vote for the candidate whose abortion policy appeals even if their policies on other issues don't align with yours. Maybe it would be better to vote for individual policies whose implementation would be carried out by professionals in the field?
 
Perhaps the biggest problem is that back in the eighteenth century the world was divided up into countries on some arbitrary basis. As a result we have no say at all in elections taking place in the country next door even though the policies being espoused could have a damaging impact on us. The European parliament is perhaps the only place where some type of compromise has been tried but even there candidates are elected on party platforms rather than on an issue by issue basis. Theoretically the United Nations provides a global forum, but nations have the same voice no matter their size or whether their government reflects the true wishes of their populace.
 
At the end of the day I’m not sure whether the answer is one cell phone, one vote or a super-robot making all the decisions. All I do know is that our antiquated decision making methods have to change.
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  • Home
  • Brian's Blog
  • Musings
    • Brian's 2020 Newlsetters >
      • 28th June 2020 – Mulling a Covid Afterlife
      • 31st May 2020 - Unlocking your mind while in Lockdown
      • 19th April, 2020 – More stimulants for lockdown contemplation
      • 3rd April 2020 - PLanning Ahead in a Time of Plague
      • 19th March 2020 – More to Mull on in Splendid Isolation
      • 24th February, 2020 - The Corona Virus and Much More
      • 24th January 2020 - What changes likely in the new year?
    • Brian's 2019 Newsletters >
      • 23rd November 2019 - Another fascinating mix from around the world
      • 30th October 2019 - Where are we headed now?
      • 10th October 2019 - Another tour of the issues
      • 27th August 2019 -Brighter than usual
      • 2nd August 2019 - Mostly more gloom and doom
      • 5th July 2019 - Not much improvement anywhere
      • 19th June 2019 - Better late than neverNew Page
      • 27th April 2019 - More to make you think about the future
      • April 2019 Letters to the Editor of Business Day
      • 2nd April 2019 - Another Month of Mixed News
      • 27th February 2019 - More good news than bad
      • 4th February 2019 - Trying to make sense of it all
    • 2018 >
      • 29th December 2018 - Preparing for 2019
      • 3th November 2018 - Death by Hot Air and Other Cautionary Tales
      • 26th October 2018 – The Case of the Treacherous Till Slip and Other Interesting Tales
      • October 2018 - Feedback on Draft Integrated Resource Plan for South Africa
      • 21st September 2018 - The Information Flow Continues
      • 31st August 2018 - Reading for the first weekend of spring / autumn
      • 31st July 2018 - Watching the World
      • 13th July 2018 - Energy Update 2018
      • 31st May 2018 - Grime and Punishment
      • 20th April, 2018 - The Equaliser Conspiracy
      • 3rd April, 2018 - More Fascinating Facts and Figures
      • 28th February, 2018 - World Update
    • 2017 >
      • 29th November 2017 - Guessing Our Future
      • 29th July 2017 – Basic Income Grant
      • 26th July 2017 – Ideas for a Brighter South Africa
      • 3rd July 2017 - Another Energy Update
      • 8th May 2017 – Trucking and Selling
      • 12th April 2017 - False News Today
      • 22nd March 2017 - Predicting Speed of Change
      • 27th February 2017 - Growing Inequality
      • 11th January 2017 - Medical Data Mining
    • 2016 >
      • 13th December 2016 - American Irony
      • 25th November 2016 - Global Decision Making
      • 30th October 2016 - Climate Changes
      • 11th October 2016 - Musing Investments
      • 19th September 2016 - The Inexorable Five
      • 2nd September 2016 - Driving Forward
      • 17th August 2016 - Innovationv Update
      • 19th July 2016 - Powering Along
      • 4th July 2016 – An Eye to the Future
      • 10th June 2016 - Reverse Education
      • 20th May 2016 - More Minding P's and Q's
      • 5th May 2016 - A Leisurely Future
      • 17th April 2016 - More Food for Thought
      • 29th March 2016 – America’s Digital Colonisation of the World
      • 11th March 2016 - Measuring Life
      • 26th February 2016 - Growing Older, Growing More
      • 12th February 2016 – Retirement Reflections
      • 29th January 2016 - Just Four More Years to 2020 >
        • 15th January 2016 - A Taste of Red and White
  • Books