26th February 2016 - Growing Older, Growing More
Every time I visit a teeming new city or visit a mall heaving with people I find myself asking the same questions. Where do all these people come from? How do they earn a living? Where does the food come from to feed them all? Where is it all going to end?
According to the UN Population Division, in July 2015 the world population reached 7.3 billion, one billion more people than 2003 and two billion more than 1990. The dramatic decline in average global fertility to 2.5 per woman has led to a decrease in the population growth rate from 1.52% per year in 1990 - 1995 to 1.15% in 2010 - 2015. However, longevity increasing to a 2015 average of 70 years means the world population, now 7.3 billion, will rise to around 11.2 billion in 2100. The wealthy countries of Europe, Asia and the Americas face rapid population ageing, while Africa and some countries in Asia prepare for the largest cohort of young people the world has ever seen.
This forecast is predicated on declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy. But what if a black swan event occurred that completely upsets the trends? HIV-Aids, for instance, reduced South Africa’s average longevity to 55 years, one of the lowest on the planet and 20% below the global average. Now we have the Zika virus affecting pregnant women in Latin America. With Pope Francis seeming to condone contraception we could see birth rates plunging not just in the Americas but throughout the Roman Catholic world. To date there is no real evidence that Zika babies have shorter lives or that the Zika virus can lead to deaths but these too are possibilities.
On a more positive note, Google’s driverless cars have now driven more than 200,000 kilometres with just two very minor accidents. In a few years time we could all be driving around in similar vehicles that are virtually accident free, more or less eliminating the 1.24 million deaths that occur in traffic accidents around the world. I don’t have a number for the number of people who die in mining and factory accidents each year, but they too could be drastically reduced with similar technology.
Back in the medical field, unravelling of the mysteries of DNA could soon lead to much more effective designer treatments of cancer and other diseases, to say nothing of providing an elixir of youth to the aged. The campaign to eradicate malaria lends itself to deployment in countries that are home to the Zika-carrying mosquitoes; the additional resources could lead to both diseases, and the related deaths, being eradicated.
Climate change scientists warn that warmer weather could lead to more deaths. A heat wave in France several years back led to a spike of deaths of people whose bodies were unable to cope with the high temperatures. This week people died in Fiji and the Southern USA as a result of major storms; I have no numbers to determine whether storm-related fatalities are increasing or not. Tropical diseases, including Zika, malaria and yellow fever, could start creeping out of the equatorial regions. Recurrence of the flu pandemic of 1917 or the black death could see swathes of the population wiped out. Macho maverick presidents in the big powers could lead to another major conflict, though much of it might be conducted war game-wise on computer screens far from the battlefield allowing the downward trend of far fatalities to continue.
Global overcrowding is the elephant in the room that seldom gets a mention for fear we again see one child policies or final solutions. However it’s probably the biggest challenge faced by mankind today.
P.S. Today the Japanese government announced that the country's population has fallen by nearly a million in the last five years for the first time since 1920.
Useful Links
The United Nations Population Division published the 2015 World Population Prospects
Our World in Data has some nice graphical presentations of the data while on the GapMinder website the Roslings provide a series of interactive charts and entertaining videos.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) provides information on life expectancy and world health statistics. The World Bank also provides a table of life expectancies and an interactive data search facility.
The World Health Organizarion recently published a global health warning concerning the Zika virus.
Every time I visit a teeming new city or visit a mall heaving with people I find myself asking the same questions. Where do all these people come from? How do they earn a living? Where does the food come from to feed them all? Where is it all going to end?
According to the UN Population Division, in July 2015 the world population reached 7.3 billion, one billion more people than 2003 and two billion more than 1990. The dramatic decline in average global fertility to 2.5 per woman has led to a decrease in the population growth rate from 1.52% per year in 1990 - 1995 to 1.15% in 2010 - 2015. However, longevity increasing to a 2015 average of 70 years means the world population, now 7.3 billion, will rise to around 11.2 billion in 2100. The wealthy countries of Europe, Asia and the Americas face rapid population ageing, while Africa and some countries in Asia prepare for the largest cohort of young people the world has ever seen.
This forecast is predicated on declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy. But what if a black swan event occurred that completely upsets the trends? HIV-Aids, for instance, reduced South Africa’s average longevity to 55 years, one of the lowest on the planet and 20% below the global average. Now we have the Zika virus affecting pregnant women in Latin America. With Pope Francis seeming to condone contraception we could see birth rates plunging not just in the Americas but throughout the Roman Catholic world. To date there is no real evidence that Zika babies have shorter lives or that the Zika virus can lead to deaths but these too are possibilities.
On a more positive note, Google’s driverless cars have now driven more than 200,000 kilometres with just two very minor accidents. In a few years time we could all be driving around in similar vehicles that are virtually accident free, more or less eliminating the 1.24 million deaths that occur in traffic accidents around the world. I don’t have a number for the number of people who die in mining and factory accidents each year, but they too could be drastically reduced with similar technology.
Back in the medical field, unravelling of the mysteries of DNA could soon lead to much more effective designer treatments of cancer and other diseases, to say nothing of providing an elixir of youth to the aged. The campaign to eradicate malaria lends itself to deployment in countries that are home to the Zika-carrying mosquitoes; the additional resources could lead to both diseases, and the related deaths, being eradicated.
Climate change scientists warn that warmer weather could lead to more deaths. A heat wave in France several years back led to a spike of deaths of people whose bodies were unable to cope with the high temperatures. This week people died in Fiji and the Southern USA as a result of major storms; I have no numbers to determine whether storm-related fatalities are increasing or not. Tropical diseases, including Zika, malaria and yellow fever, could start creeping out of the equatorial regions. Recurrence of the flu pandemic of 1917 or the black death could see swathes of the population wiped out. Macho maverick presidents in the big powers could lead to another major conflict, though much of it might be conducted war game-wise on computer screens far from the battlefield allowing the downward trend of far fatalities to continue.
Global overcrowding is the elephant in the room that seldom gets a mention for fear we again see one child policies or final solutions. However it’s probably the biggest challenge faced by mankind today.
P.S. Today the Japanese government announced that the country's population has fallen by nearly a million in the last five years for the first time since 1920.
Useful Links
The United Nations Population Division published the 2015 World Population Prospects
Our World in Data has some nice graphical presentations of the data while on the GapMinder website the Roslings provide a series of interactive charts and entertaining videos.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) provides information on life expectancy and world health statistics. The World Bank also provides a table of life expectancies and an interactive data search facility.
The World Health Organizarion recently published a global health warning concerning the Zika virus.
Proudly powered by Weebly