Brian's Musings
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  • Musings
    • Brian's 2020 Newlsetters >
      • 28th June 2020 – Mulling a Covid Afterlife
      • 31st May 2020 - Unlocking your mind while in Lockdown
      • 19th April, 2020 – More stimulants for lockdown contemplation
      • 3rd April 2020 - PLanning Ahead in a Time of Plague
      • 19th March 2020 – More to Mull on in Splendid Isolation
      • 24th February, 2020 - The Corona Virus and Much More
      • 24th January 2020 - What changes likely in the new year?
    • Brian's 2019 Newsletters >
      • 23rd November 2019 - Another fascinating mix from around the world
      • 30th October 2019 - Where are we headed now?
      • 10th October 2019 - Another tour of the issues
      • 27th August 2019 -Brighter than usual
      • 2nd August 2019 - Mostly more gloom and doom
      • 5th July 2019 - Not much improvement anywhere
      • 19th June 2019 - Better late than neverNew Page
      • 27th April 2019 - More to make you think about the future
      • April 2019 Letters to the Editor of Business Day
      • 2nd April 2019 - Another Month of Mixed News
      • 27th February 2019 - More good news than bad
      • 4th February 2019 - Trying to make sense of it all
    • 2018 >
      • 29th December 2018 - Preparing for 2019
      • 3th November 2018 - Death by Hot Air and Other Cautionary Tales
      • 26th October 2018 – The Case of the Treacherous Till Slip and Other Interesting Tales
      • October 2018 - Feedback on Draft Integrated Resource Plan for South Africa
      • 21st September 2018 - The Information Flow Continues
      • 31st August 2018 - Reading for the first weekend of spring / autumn
      • 31st July 2018 - Watching the World
      • 13th July 2018 - Energy Update 2018
      • 31st May 2018 - Grime and Punishment
      • 20th April, 2018 - The Equaliser Conspiracy
      • 3rd April, 2018 - More Fascinating Facts and Figures
      • 28th February, 2018 - World Update
    • 2017 >
      • 29th November 2017 - Guessing Our Future
      • 29th July 2017 – Basic Income Grant
      • 26th July 2017 – Ideas for a Brighter South Africa
      • 3rd July 2017 - Another Energy Update
      • 8th May 2017 – Trucking and Selling
      • 12th April 2017 - False News Today
      • 22nd March 2017 - Predicting Speed of Change
      • 27th February 2017 - Growing Inequality
      • 11th January 2017 - Medical Data Mining
    • 2016 >
      • 13th December 2016 - American Irony
      • 25th November 2016 - Global Decision Making
      • 30th October 2016 - Climate Changes
      • 11th October 2016 - Musing Investments
      • 19th September 2016 - The Inexorable Five
      • 2nd September 2016 - Driving Forward
      • 17th August 2016 - Innovationv Update
      • 19th July 2016 - Powering Along
      • 4th July 2016 – An Eye to the Future
      • 10th June 2016 - Reverse Education
      • 20th May 2016 - More Minding P's and Q's
      • 5th May 2016 - A Leisurely Future
      • 17th April 2016 - More Food for Thought
      • 29th March 2016 – America’s Digital Colonisation of the World
      • 11th March 2016 - Measuring Life
      • 26th February 2016 - Growing Older, Growing More
      • 12th February 2016 – Retirement Reflections
      • 29th January 2016 - Just Four More Years to 2020 >
        • 15th January 2016 - A Taste of Red and White
  • Books

26th February 2016 - Growing Older, Growing More



Every time I visit a teeming new city or visit a mall heaving with people I find myself asking the same questions. Where do all these people come from? How do they earn a living? Where does the food come from to feed them all? Where is it all going to end?


According to the UN Population Division, in July 2015 the world population reached 7.3 billion, one billion more people than 2003 and two billion more than 1990. The dramatic decline in average global fertility to 2.5 per woman has led to a decrease in the population growth rate from 1.52% per year in 1990 - 1995 to 1.15% in 2010 - 2015. However, longevity increasing to a 2015 average of 70 years means the world population, now 7.3 billion, will rise to around 11.2 billion in 2100. The wealthy countries of Europe, Asia and the Americas face rapid population ageing, while Africa and some countries in Asia prepare for the largest cohort of young people the world has ever seen.


This forecast is predicated on declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancy. But what if a black swan event occurred that completely upsets the trends? HIV-Aids, for instance, reduced South Africa’s average longevity to 55 years, one of the lowest on the planet and 20% below the global average. Now we have the Zika virus affecting pregnant women in Latin America. With Pope Francis seeming to condone contraception we could see birth rates plunging not just in the Americas but throughout the Roman Catholic world. To date there is no real evidence that Zika babies have shorter lives or that the Zika virus can lead to deaths but these too are possibilities.


On a more positive note, Google’s driverless cars have now driven more than 200,000 kilometres with just two very minor accidents. In a few years time we could all be driving around in similar vehicles that are virtually accident free, more or less eliminating the 1.24 million deaths that occur in traffic accidents around the world. I don’t have a number for the number of people who die in mining and factory accidents each year, but they too could be drastically reduced with similar technology.


Back in the medical field, unravelling of the mysteries of DNA could soon lead to much more effective designer treatments of cancer and other diseases, to say nothing of providing an elixir of youth to the aged. The campaign to eradicate malaria lends itself to deployment in countries that are home to the Zika-carrying mosquitoes; the additional resources could lead to both diseases, and the related deaths, being eradicated.


Climate change scientists warn that warmer weather could lead to more deaths. A heat wave in France several years back led to a spike of deaths of people whose bodies were unable to cope with the high temperatures. This week people died in Fiji and the Southern USA as a result of major storms; I have no numbers to determine whether storm-related fatalities are increasing or not. Tropical diseases, including Zika, malaria and yellow fever, could start creeping out of the equatorial regions. Recurrence of the flu pandemic of 1917 or the black death could see swathes of the population wiped out. Macho maverick presidents in the big powers could lead to another major conflict, though much of it might be conducted war game-wise on computer screens far from the battlefield allowing the downward trend of far fatalities to continue.


Global overcrowding is the elephant in the room that seldom gets a mention for fear we again see one child policies or final solutions. However it’s probably the biggest challenge faced by mankind today.


P.S. Today the Japanese government announced that the country's population has fallen by nearly a million in the last five years for the first time since 1920.


Useful Links


The United Nations Population Division published the 2015 World Population Prospects


Our World in Data has some nice graphical presentations of the data while on the GapMinder website the Roslings provide a series of interactive charts and entertaining videos.


The World Health Organisation (WHO)  provides information on life expectancy and world health statistics. The World Bank also provides a table of life expectancies and an interactive data search facility.


The World Health Organizarion recently published a global health warning concerning the Zika virus.
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  • Home
  • Brian's Blog
  • Musings
    • Brian's 2020 Newlsetters >
      • 28th June 2020 – Mulling a Covid Afterlife
      • 31st May 2020 - Unlocking your mind while in Lockdown
      • 19th April, 2020 – More stimulants for lockdown contemplation
      • 3rd April 2020 - PLanning Ahead in a Time of Plague
      • 19th March 2020 – More to Mull on in Splendid Isolation
      • 24th February, 2020 - The Corona Virus and Much More
      • 24th January 2020 - What changes likely in the new year?
    • Brian's 2019 Newsletters >
      • 23rd November 2019 - Another fascinating mix from around the world
      • 30th October 2019 - Where are we headed now?
      • 10th October 2019 - Another tour of the issues
      • 27th August 2019 -Brighter than usual
      • 2nd August 2019 - Mostly more gloom and doom
      • 5th July 2019 - Not much improvement anywhere
      • 19th June 2019 - Better late than neverNew Page
      • 27th April 2019 - More to make you think about the future
      • April 2019 Letters to the Editor of Business Day
      • 2nd April 2019 - Another Month of Mixed News
      • 27th February 2019 - More good news than bad
      • 4th February 2019 - Trying to make sense of it all
    • 2018 >
      • 29th December 2018 - Preparing for 2019
      • 3th November 2018 - Death by Hot Air and Other Cautionary Tales
      • 26th October 2018 – The Case of the Treacherous Till Slip and Other Interesting Tales
      • October 2018 - Feedback on Draft Integrated Resource Plan for South Africa
      • 21st September 2018 - The Information Flow Continues
      • 31st August 2018 - Reading for the first weekend of spring / autumn
      • 31st July 2018 - Watching the World
      • 13th July 2018 - Energy Update 2018
      • 31st May 2018 - Grime and Punishment
      • 20th April, 2018 - The Equaliser Conspiracy
      • 3rd April, 2018 - More Fascinating Facts and Figures
      • 28th February, 2018 - World Update
    • 2017 >
      • 29th November 2017 - Guessing Our Future
      • 29th July 2017 – Basic Income Grant
      • 26th July 2017 – Ideas for a Brighter South Africa
      • 3rd July 2017 - Another Energy Update
      • 8th May 2017 – Trucking and Selling
      • 12th April 2017 - False News Today
      • 22nd March 2017 - Predicting Speed of Change
      • 27th February 2017 - Growing Inequality
      • 11th January 2017 - Medical Data Mining
    • 2016 >
      • 13th December 2016 - American Irony
      • 25th November 2016 - Global Decision Making
      • 30th October 2016 - Climate Changes
      • 11th October 2016 - Musing Investments
      • 19th September 2016 - The Inexorable Five
      • 2nd September 2016 - Driving Forward
      • 17th August 2016 - Innovationv Update
      • 19th July 2016 - Powering Along
      • 4th July 2016 – An Eye to the Future
      • 10th June 2016 - Reverse Education
      • 20th May 2016 - More Minding P's and Q's
      • 5th May 2016 - A Leisurely Future
      • 17th April 2016 - More Food for Thought
      • 29th March 2016 – America’s Digital Colonisation of the World
      • 11th March 2016 - Measuring Life
      • 26th February 2016 - Growing Older, Growing More
      • 12th February 2016 – Retirement Reflections
      • 29th January 2016 - Just Four More Years to 2020 >
        • 15th January 2016 - A Taste of Red and White
  • Books