More to make you think about the future
27th April 2019 – Brian’s Musings – More to make you think about the future
People Change:
According to the State of Global Air (SOGA) 2019 study, the life expectancy of children born today will be shortened by 20 months on average by breathing the toxic air that is widespread across the globe with the greatest toll in south Asia. Air pollution contributed to nearly one in every 10 deaths in 2017, making it a bigger killer than malaria and road accidents and comparable to smoking.
Climate Change
A study published in the journal PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases concludes that half a billion more people could be at risk from mosquito-transmitted diseases within 30 years as a result of the warming climate.
According to the 2015 Global Burden of Disease Study, exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter (PM) is the fifth leading risk factor for death worldwide, accounting for 4·2 million deaths and 103·1 million disability-adjusted life-years in 2015.
An article in the Lancet Planetary Health Globally estimated that four million new paediatric asthma cases could be attributable to NO2 pollution annually with 64% of these occurring in urban centres. This burden accounts for 13% of global incidence.
Extreme winds in the Southern Ocean have increased by 1.5 metres per second, or 8%, over the past 30 years, while the highest waves have increased in height by 30 centimetres, or 5%. The strongest winds increased in the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic and the North Atlantic by about 0.6 metres per second.
Some 43% of Americans are now living in places where they are breathing unsafe air, according to the American Lung Association.
We always think New Zealand is one of the most pristine places on the planet. Well, the 2019 Environment Aotearoa report concludes that New Zealand is now one of the most invaded countries in the world, with 75 animal and plant species having gone extinct since human settlement. The once-vibrant bird life has fared particularly badly, with 90% of seabirds and 80% of shorebirds threatened with or at risk of extinction. Almost two-thirds of New Zealand’s rare ecosystems are under threat of collapse, and over the last 15 years the extinction risk worsened for 86 species, compared with the conservation status of just 26 species improving in the past 10 years.
Mozambique has been devastated by two massive cyclones in the space of a couple of weeks. Previously there is only one record of a cyclone in the area. Further south, South Africa’s Kwazulu Natal and Eastern Cape regions have also experience major floods leading to death and destruction.
Food and Water
Germany’s solar energy research centre, the Fraunhofer ISE, has found that crops in hot, arid areas that are grown in the shade of solar panel arrays are more productive.
Low Cost Renewable Energy
The International Renewable Energy Agency reported that energy demand worldwide grew by 2.3% in 2018, its fastest pace this decade, thanks to a strong global economy and higher demand for heating and cooling. Natural gas was the fuel of choice, accounting for 45% of the rise in energy consumption. Solar and wind generation grew at double-digit pace, with solar alone increasing by 31%. Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew 1.7% in 2018 to reach a historic high of 33.1 Gt CO2.
Natural gas overtook coal in 2018 to become the leading source of electricity in the OECD for the first time, accounting for 27.4% of the mix compared to 25.4% for coal. Meanwhile, the combined contribution of all renewable sources also tied natural gas last year, and was responsible for 27.4% of electricity generation, led by hydro, wind and solar.
The International Renewable Energy Agency announced that 171GW of new renewable energy capacity was installed in 2018, a 7.9 per cent annual increase over 2017. Total renewable energy generation capacity reached 2,351 GW by the end of 2018, about a third of the world’s total installed electricity capacity. Renewables accounted for nearly two-thirds of all new power generation capacity added in 2018.
According to Fraunhofer ISE, renewable energy accounted for 54.45% of net German electricity generation in March 2019.
Bloomberg NEF’s latest levelized cost of electricity analysis shows that the cost of lithium-ion batteries has fallen 35% to $187 per megawatt-hour since the first half of 2018 and for offshore wind by 24%.
Norway’s GPFG sovereign fund is to invest up to $US 14 billion in unlisted renewables.
The World Bank has agreed to bolster the Regional Off-Grid Electrification Project, which improves off-grid access to electricity through standalone solar systems in 19 countries in West Africa and the Sahel, with access to $225 million in cash and credit.
Mass Data Mining and Storage
Facebook is anticipating a fine of up to US$ five billion for not respecting the privacy of its users, small change compared to the huge profits it makes from exploiting the data volunteered by those same users.
Automation Based Unemployment
Alphabet and Moorfields Eye Hospital have developed a working prototype of an AI driven device that scans a patient’s retina and, in half a minute, can detect a range of disorders, including diabetic retinopathy, glaucoma, and age-related macular degeneration, as well as produce an “urgency score.”
Israeli researchers have used 3D printing to create an artificial human heart from a patient’s own cells and tissues.
An American farming group has developed a robotic strawberry picked which can identify, pick and package ripe strawberries without bruising them.
Autonomous Electric Vehicles
New analysis from Bloomberg New Energy Finance suggests that from 2022, the cost of electric cars will start to drop below that of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles as a result of rapidly dropping battery prices.
IDTechEx predicts that electric buses will be cheaper than diesel equivalents by 2030, if not earlier, not only because of cheaper batteries but also as a result of advances in non-battery charging options including integral PV; intermittent overhead rails and coils; bus stop top-up charging; and 10-second supercapacitor charging.
Analysts there are expecting New Zealand to reach 100 per cent of new vehicles by 2030, as part of a plan to ensure that 90 per cent of the entire fleet, if not 100 per cent, is electric by 2050.
A Norwegian aviation group has ordered 60 all-electric eFlyer2 planes, built by Colorado-based Bye Aerospace.
Chinese and Austrian companies have partnered to produce an automated drone large enough to carry passengers.
Zipline is using drones to deliver medicines in Ghana. Australian aviation authority Casa approved Alphabet’s Project Wing, an automated drone which delivers food, drinks and medication, for use in the Canberra area. Wing is also the first drone company to be certified as an “air carrier” by the Federal Aviation Administration, allowing it to launch a package-delivery service within months in Virginia.
Increasing Inequality
Recent OECD research shows that the middle class has shrunk in most OECD countries as it has become more difficult for younger generations to make it to the middle class, defined as earning between 75% and 200% of the median national income. While almost 70% of baby boomers were part of middle-income households in their twenties, only 60% of millennials are today. Across the OECD area, except for a few countries, middle incomes are barely higher today than they were ten years ago, increasing by just 0.3% per year, a third less than the average income of the richest 10%. Housing, for example, makes up the largest single spending item for middle-income households, at around one third of disposable income, up from a quarter in the 1990s. House prices have been growing three times faster than household median income over the last two decades. More than one in five middle-income households spend more than they earn and over-indebtedness is higher for them than for both low-income and high-income households. In addition, labour market prospects have become increasingly uncertain: one in six middle-income workers are in jobs that are at high risk of automation, compared to one in five low-income and one in ten high-income workers.
Guy Shrubsole, author of the book, Who Owns England?, calculates that Half of England is owned by 25,000 landowners, less than 1% of its population. If England was shared equally among its inhabitants, each would own more than an acre of land.
Just three Americans together have more wealth than the poorest 50% of Americans.
South Africa
Eskom estimates that emissions from its coal-fired power stations kill 534 people a year – but an independent review of Eskom’s data estimates that the number of people who die is at least 1,850 a year. Greenpeace says Eskom has misled the public and the government by underestimating the health costs of its 13 coal power stations.
Standard Bank has followed other South African banks in confirming it is not involved in the financing of either the Thabametsi or Khanyisa new coal IPP projects.
People Change:
According to the State of Global Air (SOGA) 2019 study, the life expectancy of children born today will be shortened by 20 months on average by breathing the toxic air that is widespread across the globe with the greatest toll in south Asia. Air pollution contributed to nearly one in every 10 deaths in 2017, making it a bigger killer than malaria and road accidents and comparable to smoking.
Climate Change
A study published in the journal PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases concludes that half a billion more people could be at risk from mosquito-transmitted diseases within 30 years as a result of the warming climate.
According to the 2015 Global Burden of Disease Study, exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter (PM) is the fifth leading risk factor for death worldwide, accounting for 4·2 million deaths and 103·1 million disability-adjusted life-years in 2015.
An article in the Lancet Planetary Health Globally estimated that four million new paediatric asthma cases could be attributable to NO2 pollution annually with 64% of these occurring in urban centres. This burden accounts for 13% of global incidence.
Extreme winds in the Southern Ocean have increased by 1.5 metres per second, or 8%, over the past 30 years, while the highest waves have increased in height by 30 centimetres, or 5%. The strongest winds increased in the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic and the North Atlantic by about 0.6 metres per second.
Some 43% of Americans are now living in places where they are breathing unsafe air, according to the American Lung Association.
We always think New Zealand is one of the most pristine places on the planet. Well, the 2019 Environment Aotearoa report concludes that New Zealand is now one of the most invaded countries in the world, with 75 animal and plant species having gone extinct since human settlement. The once-vibrant bird life has fared particularly badly, with 90% of seabirds and 80% of shorebirds threatened with or at risk of extinction. Almost two-thirds of New Zealand’s rare ecosystems are under threat of collapse, and over the last 15 years the extinction risk worsened for 86 species, compared with the conservation status of just 26 species improving in the past 10 years.
Mozambique has been devastated by two massive cyclones in the space of a couple of weeks. Previously there is only one record of a cyclone in the area. Further south, South Africa’s Kwazulu Natal and Eastern Cape regions have also experience major floods leading to death and destruction.
Food and Water
Germany’s solar energy research centre, the Fraunhofer ISE, has found that crops in hot, arid areas that are grown in the shade of solar panel arrays are more productive.
Low Cost Renewable Energy
The International Renewable Energy Agency reported that energy demand worldwide grew by 2.3% in 2018, its fastest pace this decade, thanks to a strong global economy and higher demand for heating and cooling. Natural gas was the fuel of choice, accounting for 45% of the rise in energy consumption. Solar and wind generation grew at double-digit pace, with solar alone increasing by 31%. Global energy-related CO2 emissions grew 1.7% in 2018 to reach a historic high of 33.1 Gt CO2.
Natural gas overtook coal in 2018 to become the leading source of electricity in the OECD for the first time, accounting for 27.4% of the mix compared to 25.4% for coal. Meanwhile, the combined contribution of all renewable sources also tied natural gas last year, and was responsible for 27.4% of electricity generation, led by hydro, wind and solar.
The International Renewable Energy Agency announced that 171GW of new renewable energy capacity was installed in 2018, a 7.9 per cent annual increase over 2017. Total renewable energy generation capacity reached 2,351 GW by the end of 2018, about a third of the world’s total installed electricity capacity. Renewables accounted for nearly two-thirds of all new power generation capacity added in 2018.
According to Fraunhofer ISE, renewable energy accounted for 54.45% of net German electricity generation in March 2019.
Bloomberg NEF’s latest levelized cost of electricity analysis shows that the cost of lithium-ion batteries has fallen 35% to $187 per megawatt-hour since the first half of 2018 and for offshore wind by 24%.
Norway’s GPFG sovereign fund is to invest up to $US 14 billion in unlisted renewables.
The World Bank has agreed to bolster the Regional Off-Grid Electrification Project, which improves off-grid access to electricity through standalone solar systems in 19 countries in West Africa and the Sahel, with access to $225 million in cash and credit.
Mass Data Mining and Storage
Facebook is anticipating a fine of up to US$ five billion for not respecting the privacy of its users, small change compared to the huge profits it makes from exploiting the data volunteered by those same users.
Automation Based Unemployment
Alphabet and Moorfields Eye Hospital have developed a working prototype of an AI driven device that scans a patient’s retina and, in half a minute, can detect a range of disorders, including diabetic retinopathy, glaucoma, and age-related macular degeneration, as well as produce an “urgency score.”
Israeli researchers have used 3D printing to create an artificial human heart from a patient’s own cells and tissues.
An American farming group has developed a robotic strawberry picked which can identify, pick and package ripe strawberries without bruising them.
Autonomous Electric Vehicles
New analysis from Bloomberg New Energy Finance suggests that from 2022, the cost of electric cars will start to drop below that of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles as a result of rapidly dropping battery prices.
IDTechEx predicts that electric buses will be cheaper than diesel equivalents by 2030, if not earlier, not only because of cheaper batteries but also as a result of advances in non-battery charging options including integral PV; intermittent overhead rails and coils; bus stop top-up charging; and 10-second supercapacitor charging.
Analysts there are expecting New Zealand to reach 100 per cent of new vehicles by 2030, as part of a plan to ensure that 90 per cent of the entire fleet, if not 100 per cent, is electric by 2050.
A Norwegian aviation group has ordered 60 all-electric eFlyer2 planes, built by Colorado-based Bye Aerospace.
Chinese and Austrian companies have partnered to produce an automated drone large enough to carry passengers.
Zipline is using drones to deliver medicines in Ghana. Australian aviation authority Casa approved Alphabet’s Project Wing, an automated drone which delivers food, drinks and medication, for use in the Canberra area. Wing is also the first drone company to be certified as an “air carrier” by the Federal Aviation Administration, allowing it to launch a package-delivery service within months in Virginia.
Increasing Inequality
Recent OECD research shows that the middle class has shrunk in most OECD countries as it has become more difficult for younger generations to make it to the middle class, defined as earning between 75% and 200% of the median national income. While almost 70% of baby boomers were part of middle-income households in their twenties, only 60% of millennials are today. Across the OECD area, except for a few countries, middle incomes are barely higher today than they were ten years ago, increasing by just 0.3% per year, a third less than the average income of the richest 10%. Housing, for example, makes up the largest single spending item for middle-income households, at around one third of disposable income, up from a quarter in the 1990s. House prices have been growing three times faster than household median income over the last two decades. More than one in five middle-income households spend more than they earn and over-indebtedness is higher for them than for both low-income and high-income households. In addition, labour market prospects have become increasingly uncertain: one in six middle-income workers are in jobs that are at high risk of automation, compared to one in five low-income and one in ten high-income workers.
Guy Shrubsole, author of the book, Who Owns England?, calculates that Half of England is owned by 25,000 landowners, less than 1% of its population. If England was shared equally among its inhabitants, each would own more than an acre of land.
Just three Americans together have more wealth than the poorest 50% of Americans.
South Africa
Eskom estimates that emissions from its coal-fired power stations kill 534 people a year – but an independent review of Eskom’s data estimates that the number of people who die is at least 1,850 a year. Greenpeace says Eskom has misled the public and the government by underestimating the health costs of its 13 coal power stations.
Standard Bank has followed other South African banks in confirming it is not involved in the financing of either the Thabametsi or Khanyisa new coal IPP projects.
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