another month of mixed news
2nd April 2019 – Another month of mixed news
As mentioned in my last musing, you should find more positive news about the future of the world than usual. However, remember these are only snapshots and you need to stand back and mull on where all these observations fit into your own personal view of where the world is headed.
Climate Change
Italian olive harvests dropped 57% in 2018 to the lowest in 25 years.
According to economist Alex de Vries, Bitcoin now uses at least as much electricity annually as does Hungary. A single transaction consumes somewhere between 491 and 766 kilowatt-hours compared with 0.4 kilowatt-hours consumed by a non-cash transaction by the traditional banking industry. A Bitcoin transaction emits somewhere between 233 and 364 kilograms of carbon dioxide, compared with 0.4 grams for a VISA transaction and 0.8 grams for a Google search.
Extraction industries are responsible for half of the world’s carbon emissions and more than 80% of biodiversity loss, according to a comprehensive environmental UN study of mining and farming.
The number of early deaths caused by air pollution is double previous estimates, according to new research, with toxic air killing more people than tobacco smoking. Scientists used new data to estimate that nearly 800,000 people die prematurely each year in Europe because of dirty air, and that each life is cut short by an average of more than two years. While air pollution hits the lungs first, its impact via the bloodstream on heart disease and strokes is responsible for twice as many deaths as respiratory diseases.
Seven major South Korean cities suffered record-high concentrations of PM2.5 particles according to the National Institute of Environmental Research.
A new report by a British think tank estimates that since the 2015 Paris Agreement, the world’s five largest listed oil and gas companies spent more than $1 billion lobbying to prevent climate change regulations while also running public relations campaigns aimed at maintaining public support for climate action.
Canada, where warming is taking place at twice the speed of the global average, has introduced a carbon take in four provinces. Australia has just experienced its hottest summer on record.
Low Cost Renewable Energy
Global electricity demand rose by 4% in 2018, nearly twice as fast as overall energy demand, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Renewables accounted for 45% of the growth in generating capacity.
In 2018 104.1 GW of new solar generation capacity was deployed globally, according to SolarPower Europe.
During one week in March, renewables, mostly wind, provided 72.4 per cent of Germany’s electricity, while in Great Britain wind energy generated over a third of the country’s electricity, more than any other power source. Utility-scale solar output one day in March provided some 59 per cent of California’s electricity.
The price of PV modules fell more than 30% last year, according to the tenth International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) report, published by German engineering body the Verband Deutscher Maschinen und Anlagenbau (VDMA). VDMA also estimated that global production capacity for PV modules reached 150 GW last year.
BloombergNEF reported that battery storage costs have fallen by more than one third since the first half of 2018, while wind and solar costs have dropped by 10 per cent and 18 per cent respectively. Offshore wind is down 24 per cent over the last year.
Global demand for lithium-ion batteries is soaring, yet commodity prices for the lithium and cobalt used in these batteries dropped sharply throughout the first quarter of 2019.
Research by the Global Energy Monitor showed that the number of coal fired power stations on which construction has begun each year has fallen by 84% since 2015, and 39% in 2018 alone, while the number of completed plants has dropped by more than half since 2015. Coal plant retirements have continued at a record pace with the US accounting for more than half of the total despite efforts by the Trump administration to prevent the closure of ageing plants. However, there are signs China could start a new coal plant building program.
Research by Energy Innovation and Vibrant Clean Energy, concluded that replacing 74 per cent of American coal fired power stations with wind and solar power would immediately reduce power costs, with wind power in particular at times cutting the cost almost in half. The report comments that more coal fired capacity has been closed in the first two years of the Trump administration than in all the time Obama was president.
Norway’s huge Government Pension Fund Global, created from the country’s oil largesse, has announced plans to divest from 134 oil and gas exploration and production companies held in its US$1 trillion investment fund but will retain shares in the large, major oil and gas companies.
Automation Based Unemployment
According to the Robotic Industries Association, 35,880 robots were shipped in 2018 to the U.S., Canada and Mexico, up 7 per cent from 2017. Of those shipments, 16,702 were to non-automotive companies, an increase of 41 per cent.
In order to cut costs, Tesla is closing all of its 378 stores worldwide, laying off retail employees and shifting all sales of its new $35,000 Model 3 online. This plan was cancelled a few days after it was announced.
In 2018 debit cards overtook notes and coins as the most popular form of payment in the UK for the first time and experts predict that cash could fall to just 10% of all payments within the next 15 years. Already banks are closing branches and ATMs.
Autonomous Electric Vehicles
Global plug-in electric sales now account for 2.2% of the global fleet, with China followed distantly by the USA, Norway, Germany, the UK, Japan, France, Canada, South Korea and Sweden. Some 58% of cars in Norway are now electric or hybrid.
China saw a 78 per cent increase in EV sales from 2017, with 1.18 million deliveries in 2018 compared to 663,000 the previous year, 56 per cent of the world total. Europe experienced a 34 per cent increase thanks to strong markets in southern and central Europe and in particular due to a rapid recovery in EV sales in the Netherlands. Norway was again the leader in terms of EV adoption with 40 per cent of cars sold electric, followed by Iceland with 17.5 per cent and Sweden with 7.2 per cent. Electric car sales in the USA were up 79 per cent.
Tesla sold just over 245,000 vehicles in 2018, confirming its place as the world’s most successful electric car manufacturer. Over 145,000 Tesla Model 3 sedans were delivered in 2018, making it the single most popular electric car, followed by Chinese carmaker BJEC’s EC180 and 200 EV models and Japan’s Nissan Leaf.
Norway mandated that by 2023 all taxis in Oslo must be electric. The city plans to install inductive charging systems that allow its taxi fleets to charge quickly, wirelessly and efficiently enough to ensure the transition to electric is successful.
Tesla acquired Maxwell Technologies, a pioneer in the design and manufacture of the high power density ultra-capacitors.
In 2018, internal combustion engine (ICE) car sales in Europe fell by 0.23%, in China by 6% and in Australia by 3%, whilst EV sales around the world rose by 75%.
The fuel economy of cars and other light-duty vehicles has slowed down in recent years. After improving by an average of 1.7% per year from more than a decade, fuel economy gained just 0.2% a year in advanced economies between 2015 and 2017.
Vancouver based Harbour Air is planning to convert its existing sea plane fleet to electric.
South Africa
Orion Minerals signed a renewable energy collaboration agreement with juwi to assess the feasibility of establishing a dedicated solar and wind hybrid power plant near its Prieska mine.
New Southern Energy has completed construction of South Africa’s first floating PV project, a 60 kW floating installation dam on a fruit farm near Franschhoek.
I hope these comments have given you good for thought as you too sit back and mull our precarious existence in the huge universe – which astronomers now say is expanding much faster than they previously thought.
As mentioned in my last musing, you should find more positive news about the future of the world than usual. However, remember these are only snapshots and you need to stand back and mull on where all these observations fit into your own personal view of where the world is headed.
Climate Change
Italian olive harvests dropped 57% in 2018 to the lowest in 25 years.
According to economist Alex de Vries, Bitcoin now uses at least as much electricity annually as does Hungary. A single transaction consumes somewhere between 491 and 766 kilowatt-hours compared with 0.4 kilowatt-hours consumed by a non-cash transaction by the traditional banking industry. A Bitcoin transaction emits somewhere between 233 and 364 kilograms of carbon dioxide, compared with 0.4 grams for a VISA transaction and 0.8 grams for a Google search.
Extraction industries are responsible for half of the world’s carbon emissions and more than 80% of biodiversity loss, according to a comprehensive environmental UN study of mining and farming.
The number of early deaths caused by air pollution is double previous estimates, according to new research, with toxic air killing more people than tobacco smoking. Scientists used new data to estimate that nearly 800,000 people die prematurely each year in Europe because of dirty air, and that each life is cut short by an average of more than two years. While air pollution hits the lungs first, its impact via the bloodstream on heart disease and strokes is responsible for twice as many deaths as respiratory diseases.
Seven major South Korean cities suffered record-high concentrations of PM2.5 particles according to the National Institute of Environmental Research.
A new report by a British think tank estimates that since the 2015 Paris Agreement, the world’s five largest listed oil and gas companies spent more than $1 billion lobbying to prevent climate change regulations while also running public relations campaigns aimed at maintaining public support for climate action.
Canada, where warming is taking place at twice the speed of the global average, has introduced a carbon take in four provinces. Australia has just experienced its hottest summer on record.
Low Cost Renewable Energy
Global electricity demand rose by 4% in 2018, nearly twice as fast as overall energy demand, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Renewables accounted for 45% of the growth in generating capacity.
In 2018 104.1 GW of new solar generation capacity was deployed globally, according to SolarPower Europe.
During one week in March, renewables, mostly wind, provided 72.4 per cent of Germany’s electricity, while in Great Britain wind energy generated over a third of the country’s electricity, more than any other power source. Utility-scale solar output one day in March provided some 59 per cent of California’s electricity.
The price of PV modules fell more than 30% last year, according to the tenth International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) report, published by German engineering body the Verband Deutscher Maschinen und Anlagenbau (VDMA). VDMA also estimated that global production capacity for PV modules reached 150 GW last year.
BloombergNEF reported that battery storage costs have fallen by more than one third since the first half of 2018, while wind and solar costs have dropped by 10 per cent and 18 per cent respectively. Offshore wind is down 24 per cent over the last year.
Global demand for lithium-ion batteries is soaring, yet commodity prices for the lithium and cobalt used in these batteries dropped sharply throughout the first quarter of 2019.
Research by the Global Energy Monitor showed that the number of coal fired power stations on which construction has begun each year has fallen by 84% since 2015, and 39% in 2018 alone, while the number of completed plants has dropped by more than half since 2015. Coal plant retirements have continued at a record pace with the US accounting for more than half of the total despite efforts by the Trump administration to prevent the closure of ageing plants. However, there are signs China could start a new coal plant building program.
Research by Energy Innovation and Vibrant Clean Energy, concluded that replacing 74 per cent of American coal fired power stations with wind and solar power would immediately reduce power costs, with wind power in particular at times cutting the cost almost in half. The report comments that more coal fired capacity has been closed in the first two years of the Trump administration than in all the time Obama was president.
Norway’s huge Government Pension Fund Global, created from the country’s oil largesse, has announced plans to divest from 134 oil and gas exploration and production companies held in its US$1 trillion investment fund but will retain shares in the large, major oil and gas companies.
Automation Based Unemployment
According to the Robotic Industries Association, 35,880 robots were shipped in 2018 to the U.S., Canada and Mexico, up 7 per cent from 2017. Of those shipments, 16,702 were to non-automotive companies, an increase of 41 per cent.
In order to cut costs, Tesla is closing all of its 378 stores worldwide, laying off retail employees and shifting all sales of its new $35,000 Model 3 online. This plan was cancelled a few days after it was announced.
In 2018 debit cards overtook notes and coins as the most popular form of payment in the UK for the first time and experts predict that cash could fall to just 10% of all payments within the next 15 years. Already banks are closing branches and ATMs.
Autonomous Electric Vehicles
Global plug-in electric sales now account for 2.2% of the global fleet, with China followed distantly by the USA, Norway, Germany, the UK, Japan, France, Canada, South Korea and Sweden. Some 58% of cars in Norway are now electric or hybrid.
China saw a 78 per cent increase in EV sales from 2017, with 1.18 million deliveries in 2018 compared to 663,000 the previous year, 56 per cent of the world total. Europe experienced a 34 per cent increase thanks to strong markets in southern and central Europe and in particular due to a rapid recovery in EV sales in the Netherlands. Norway was again the leader in terms of EV adoption with 40 per cent of cars sold electric, followed by Iceland with 17.5 per cent and Sweden with 7.2 per cent. Electric car sales in the USA were up 79 per cent.
Tesla sold just over 245,000 vehicles in 2018, confirming its place as the world’s most successful electric car manufacturer. Over 145,000 Tesla Model 3 sedans were delivered in 2018, making it the single most popular electric car, followed by Chinese carmaker BJEC’s EC180 and 200 EV models and Japan’s Nissan Leaf.
Norway mandated that by 2023 all taxis in Oslo must be electric. The city plans to install inductive charging systems that allow its taxi fleets to charge quickly, wirelessly and efficiently enough to ensure the transition to electric is successful.
Tesla acquired Maxwell Technologies, a pioneer in the design and manufacture of the high power density ultra-capacitors.
In 2018, internal combustion engine (ICE) car sales in Europe fell by 0.23%, in China by 6% and in Australia by 3%, whilst EV sales around the world rose by 75%.
The fuel economy of cars and other light-duty vehicles has slowed down in recent years. After improving by an average of 1.7% per year from more than a decade, fuel economy gained just 0.2% a year in advanced economies between 2015 and 2017.
Vancouver based Harbour Air is planning to convert its existing sea plane fleet to electric.
South Africa
Orion Minerals signed a renewable energy collaboration agreement with juwi to assess the feasibility of establishing a dedicated solar and wind hybrid power plant near its Prieska mine.
New Southern Energy has completed construction of South Africa’s first floating PV project, a 60 kW floating installation dam on a fruit farm near Franschhoek.
I hope these comments have given you good for thought as you too sit back and mull our precarious existence in the huge universe – which astronomers now say is expanding much faster than they previously thought.
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