Not much improvement anywhere
Not Much Improvement Anywhere
People Change:
The United Nations Population Division recently published its World Population Prospects 2019 which show – among many, many other things – that in 2018 for the first time in history, the over-65s outnumbered children under five years of age. The UN predicts that the number of people aged 80 or over will triple by 2050, from 143 million to 426 million. Japan is the oldest country, but Germany, Italy, France and Spain are not far behind. In Japan 25% of people are 65 or older; Europe and North America will reach that proportion by 2050 (unless there’s a drastic change, like a climate disaster, for instance.
https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/index.asp
With those numbers in mind, researchers at Harvard Medical School and Rand estimated in 2016 that a 10% growth in the population aged 60 and older will decrease growth in GDP per capita by 5.5%. Other research has found that countries with rapidly aging workers have been much more aggressive in adopting industrial robots that have boosted productivity.
The UN data also show that Japan’s population shrank by 1% and its prime working age population shrank by 4.4%. Research by the Economic Innovation Group using census data shows that across the United States, 41% of counties, with a population of 38 million, have declined by this much or more over the last decade. The web page includes some fascinating maps showing how people are moving leaving behind abandoned houses and smaller county populations with lower levels of education achievement. Although DT never gets a mention, the graphs go some way to explaining his electoral success.
https://eig.org/heartland-visa
Migration
According to America’s Census Bureau, workers, particularly those less educated, are leaving the cities largely because of rising housing costs.
According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, the number of people forced to flee their homes across the world has exceeded 70 million for the first time since records began. Climate change is increasingly being listed as a reason for people moving.
Climate Change and the Environment:
Reports from around the world add to the evidence of climate change. Last week many European countries recorded record high temperatures. A team from the University of Alaska Fairbanks found that permafrost at outposts in the Canadian Arctic is thawing 70 years earlier than predicted. A study using previously classified cold war era satellite photographs and published in the journal Science Advances shows that glaciers in the Himalayan Mountains have been melting at a rate of 1% per year since 2000, double the previous melt rate. The Himalayas are an important water source for neighbouring Asian countries.
The Center for Climate Integrity has calculated that defending against rising seas could cost US communities $416bn in the next 20 years.
A recent article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA by Claire L. Parkinson describes how Antarctic sea ice slowly increased during 40 years of measurements and reached a record maximum in 2014, whereafter the extent of sea ice extent plummeted to a record low in 2017 and at rates far exceeding those measured in the Arctic
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/06/25/1906556116
The State of Global Air 2019 report of the Health Effects Institute and The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation found that the combination of PM2.5, ozone, and household air pollution is the fifth leading risk factor for mortality worldwide, causing 10% of 2017 global deaths. Air pollution reduced life expectancy in 2017 by 1 year and 8 months on average worldwide. China and India together were responsible for over half of the total global attributable deaths. Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India have experienced the steepest increases in air pollution levels since 2010. In 2017 92% of the world’s population lived in areas that exceeded the WHO Guideline for PM2.5
https://www.healtheffects.org/announcements/state-global-air-2019-air-pollution-significant-risk-factor-worldwide
http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/state-global-air-2019-report
https://www.stateofglobalair.org/
According to REN21, global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions grew an estimated 1.7% in 2018 due to increased fossil fuel consumption. Global subsidies for fossil fuel use increased 11% from 2017, and fossil fuel companies continued to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on lobbying to delay, control or block climate change policies and on advertisements to influence public opinion.
Bloomberg NEF's latest New Energy Outlook projects annual carbon emissions to have peaked in 2018 and will drop by more than a third through 2050 as a result of renewable energy.
Research by the Natural Resources Defense Council, the International Institute for Sustainable Development and Oil Change International entitled G20 Coal Subsidies shows how G20 governments provide at least US$ 63.9 billion per year – up from over US$ 17.2 billion per year just five years ago - in government support to the production and consumption of coal alone, with coal-fired power plants the single largest contributor to the growth in global CO2 emissions in 2018. China, Japan and India are the worst culprits.
Food and Water
According to a 2016 Asia Development Bank report, 3.4 billion people could be living in "water stressed areas" by 2050. Chennai, India’s sixth largest city, is the latest city to have almost run out of water. Jakarta is slowly subsiding into the water as a result of unsustainable extraction of groundwater from aquifers below the city.
Cairo could run out of water because Ethiopia is damming the Nile River, which currently provides the city with 97% of its water supply. In the United States, damming of the Colorado River, combined with a nineteen year drought, has led some officials to determine that some reservoirs fed by the river will never be full again.
Low Cost Renewable Energy
In April 2019, more electricity was generated from renewables than coal in the USA for the first time.
A Californian solar and battery storage power purchase agreement has achieved record new lows for the cost of electricity from solar of 1.99c/kWh for 400MW of PV and 1.3c/kWh for stored solar power from a co-located 400MW/800MWh battery storage system.
A court in Kenya has rejected a Chinese proposal to build a coal fired power station in the country as part of China’s Belt and Road initiative.
In a report with scary barcharts, Global Energy Monitor has warned that up to US$ 1.3 trillion in new LNG export and import infrastructure currently under development worldwide is at significant risk of becoming stranded, as the world market for gas risks becoming oversupplied at a time when the continued emergence of lower cost renewable alternatives challenges the need for further gas supplies. Qatar, Australia and Mozambique could all be significantly adversely affected. Analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance shows that the falling costs of renewables combined with storage are now able to complete new gas generation on cost.
June 2019 saw the publication of separate analyses of the world energy sector by European energy consultancy REN21, by Bloomberg New Energy Finance and by BP. Fascinating though their findings are (to me at any rate) I will just try pick the nuggets out of the first two reports and leave BP’s annual statistics to my next Musing.
REN21 Renewables 2019 Global Status Report calculated that renewables accounted for 26.2% of electricity generation in 2018, 15.8% hydro, 5.5% wind and 2.4 % solar. Overall, renewable energy now provides 33% of the world’s total installed power generating capacity. During 2018 181 GW of renewable power generation capacity - 100 GW of which was solar PV and 51 GW wind - was added, for a cumulative 2,378 GW at year’s end. Global new investment in renewable power and fuels (not including hydropower projects larger than 50 MW) was US$ 288.9 billion in 2018, a decrease of 11% compared 2017. Investment in renewable power and fuels has exceeded US$ 280 billion per year for the past five years. For the fourth year in a row, additions of renewable power generation capacity outpaced net installations of fossil fuel and nuclear power combined. The renewable energy sector overall employed around 11 million people worldwide. Modern renewable energy met around 10% of worldwide heating and cooling demand in 2016, but its growth in the sector continues to be minor.
In 2017, the global population without access to electricity fell below the 1 billion mark, with 61% of those still lacking access living in sub-Saharan Africa and around 35% in developing Asia. With regard to energy for clean cooking, 2.7 billion people still did not have access in 2017, 33% of them living in sub-Saharan Africa and 64% of them in developing Asia. In 2017, more than 122 million people obtained access mainly through off-grid solar systems.
https://www.ren21.net/reports/global-status-report/
The New Energy Outlook of Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) calculated that the all-in costs of electricity from wind and utility-scale solar power have dropped by 49% and 85%, respectively, since 2010, making it cheaper than power from a new coal or gas-fired plant across two-thirds of the world, up from less than 1% only five years ago. BNEF predicts that price reductions in solar, energy storage and wind technologies will continue at rates of 28%, 18% and 14%, respectively, for every doubling in installed capacity. World electricity demand is set to increase by 62% by 2050, resulting in global generating capacity almost tripling. Wind and solar will grow from 7% of generation today to 48% by 2050. This will attract US$ 13.3 trillion in new investment, of which wind will take US$ 5.3 trillion and solar US$ 4.2 trillion. Coal’s role in the global power mix will fall from 37% today to 12% while oil as a power-generating source will be virtually eliminated. A third of solar PV will be deployed behind-the-meter by households and business, accounting for 5% of world electricity in 2050. Europe will lead the way in installing renewables with 92% of the continent’s power in 2020 coming from wind, solar and batteries.
Automation Based Unemployment
As you read on, you will note that automation, unemployment and inequality are becoming increasingly intertwined.
These days we take GPS for granted. Now, a study sponsored by the US government's National Institutes of Standards and Technology and performed by RTI International calculated that GPS has generated an estimated US$ 1.4 trillion in economic benefits for the private sector since it was installed in 1984. In the case of some adverse event leading to a widespread outage, the study estimates that the loss of the GPS service would have a US$ 1 billion per-day impact.
The OECD's latest Employment Outlook estimates that across its 34 member countries, 14% of existing jobs could disappear over the next 15 to 20 years, and 32% are likely to change radically. The proportion of union members among employees fell from 45.6% in 1986 to 13.7% while the percentage of employees covered by collective agreements declined from 83 per cent to 58.9 per cent over the same period.
Oxford Economics new report How Robots Change the World predicts that up to 20 million manufacturing jobs could be lost to robots by 2030. Robots will lead to twice as many manufacturing job losses in low-skill areas, thereby aggravating income inequality. About 1.7 million manufacturing jobs have already been lost to robots since 2000, including about 400,000 in Europe, 260,000 in the US, and 550,000 in China.
Research published by the World Economic Forum calculates that increasing automation is resulting in jobs moving back from low wage countries to the home countries of companies where a smaller workforce can perform the tasks. This reshoring increases employment and wages for high-skilled but not for low-skilled workers. Inequality rises as a consequence of the increasing gap between wages for high- and lower-skilled workers.
In the late 1960s, 97% of all American men between 25 and 54 years of age participated in the labour force, but by 2018 only 89% participated, with participation by non-college educated men leading the decline. Recent research suggests that the increase in opioid prescription rates between 1999 and 2015 could account for as much as 43% of the decline in the male participation rate. After steady gains, the participation rate for prime working-age women peaked at 77% in 1997, stagnated until 2000, fell during the Great Recession, recovered somewhat after 2015 to reach 75% in 2018.
Autonomous Electric Vehicles
According to REN21, the global number of electric passenger cars increased 63% in 2018 compared with 2017, and more cities are moving to electric bus fleets. The global stock of electric cars reached more than 5.1 million units in 2018, a 63% increase over 2017. However, EV markets remain highly concentrated, with China making up nearly 50% of the global EV stock. The first specific use of VRE to charge EVs was piloted in California in 2018. Globally, more than 100,000 public EV charging points were installed in 2018.
Dutch solar car manufacturer Lightyear has unveiled the first prototype of a long-range solar production car vehicle, that promises up to 800 kilometers of range, and the ability to top up the vehicle’s charge through solar panels integrated into the car’s design.
BMW plans to double sales of hybrid and electric vehicles over the next two years.
H55 has conducted the maiden flight of its Bristell Energic 2-seater electric plane above the Swiss city of Sion.
Nuro is the latest company trialling autonomous vehicles. Already Waymo is running a ride-hail service in Arizona, May Mobility is operating shuttles in Detroit and Rhode Island, and sundry robo-truck companies are hauling goods in Florida and the southwest. Volvo and logistics company DFDS are introducing fully automated Volvo Vera trucks into the Gotheburg port area for moving containers. Apple bought Drive.ai.
Uber’s aerial arm will shortly start delivering meals from McDonald’s and other restaurants to households in San Diego using drones that will fly to designated zones, where couriers will pick up the goods and deliver them to the final destination.
Increasing Inequality
Research by McKinsey shows labour’s share of income in 35 advanced economies fell from around 54% in 1980 to 50.5% in 2018. In the USA the fall was from 63.3% in 2000 to 56.7% in 2016. The main drivers for the decline were identified as supercycles and boom-bust (33%); rising depreciation and shift to IPP capital (26%); superstar effects and consolidation (18%); capital substitution and technology (12%); and globalisation and labour bargaining power (11%).
Research by Brookings calculated that labour’s share of income in the US private business sector declined by about 5.4% points between the periods 1998 to 2002 and 2012 to 2016. Without such a decline since 1998, average worker pay might be about $3,000 higher per year in real terms.
Southern Africa
Natura Energy subsidiary, TeraSun Energy, has announced a US$ 63.2 million investment in a 50MW solar plant in Arandis, western Namibia, as part of the government’s plan to reduce dependence on hydropower and imported electricity from South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
People Change:
The United Nations Population Division recently published its World Population Prospects 2019 which show – among many, many other things – that in 2018 for the first time in history, the over-65s outnumbered children under five years of age. The UN predicts that the number of people aged 80 or over will triple by 2050, from 143 million to 426 million. Japan is the oldest country, but Germany, Italy, France and Spain are not far behind. In Japan 25% of people are 65 or older; Europe and North America will reach that proportion by 2050 (unless there’s a drastic change, like a climate disaster, for instance.
https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/index.asp
With those numbers in mind, researchers at Harvard Medical School and Rand estimated in 2016 that a 10% growth in the population aged 60 and older will decrease growth in GDP per capita by 5.5%. Other research has found that countries with rapidly aging workers have been much more aggressive in adopting industrial robots that have boosted productivity.
The UN data also show that Japan’s population shrank by 1% and its prime working age population shrank by 4.4%. Research by the Economic Innovation Group using census data shows that across the United States, 41% of counties, with a population of 38 million, have declined by this much or more over the last decade. The web page includes some fascinating maps showing how people are moving leaving behind abandoned houses and smaller county populations with lower levels of education achievement. Although DT never gets a mention, the graphs go some way to explaining his electoral success.
https://eig.org/heartland-visa
Migration
According to America’s Census Bureau, workers, particularly those less educated, are leaving the cities largely because of rising housing costs.
According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, the number of people forced to flee their homes across the world has exceeded 70 million for the first time since records began. Climate change is increasingly being listed as a reason for people moving.
Climate Change and the Environment:
Reports from around the world add to the evidence of climate change. Last week many European countries recorded record high temperatures. A team from the University of Alaska Fairbanks found that permafrost at outposts in the Canadian Arctic is thawing 70 years earlier than predicted. A study using previously classified cold war era satellite photographs and published in the journal Science Advances shows that glaciers in the Himalayan Mountains have been melting at a rate of 1% per year since 2000, double the previous melt rate. The Himalayas are an important water source for neighbouring Asian countries.
The Center for Climate Integrity has calculated that defending against rising seas could cost US communities $416bn in the next 20 years.
A recent article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA by Claire L. Parkinson describes how Antarctic sea ice slowly increased during 40 years of measurements and reached a record maximum in 2014, whereafter the extent of sea ice extent plummeted to a record low in 2017 and at rates far exceeding those measured in the Arctic
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/06/25/1906556116
The State of Global Air 2019 report of the Health Effects Institute and The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation found that the combination of PM2.5, ozone, and household air pollution is the fifth leading risk factor for mortality worldwide, causing 10% of 2017 global deaths. Air pollution reduced life expectancy in 2017 by 1 year and 8 months on average worldwide. China and India together were responsible for over half of the total global attributable deaths. Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India have experienced the steepest increases in air pollution levels since 2010. In 2017 92% of the world’s population lived in areas that exceeded the WHO Guideline for PM2.5
https://www.healtheffects.org/announcements/state-global-air-2019-air-pollution-significant-risk-factor-worldwide
http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/state-global-air-2019-report
https://www.stateofglobalair.org/
According to REN21, global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions grew an estimated 1.7% in 2018 due to increased fossil fuel consumption. Global subsidies for fossil fuel use increased 11% from 2017, and fossil fuel companies continued to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on lobbying to delay, control or block climate change policies and on advertisements to influence public opinion.
Bloomberg NEF's latest New Energy Outlook projects annual carbon emissions to have peaked in 2018 and will drop by more than a third through 2050 as a result of renewable energy.
Research by the Natural Resources Defense Council, the International Institute for Sustainable Development and Oil Change International entitled G20 Coal Subsidies shows how G20 governments provide at least US$ 63.9 billion per year – up from over US$ 17.2 billion per year just five years ago - in government support to the production and consumption of coal alone, with coal-fired power plants the single largest contributor to the growth in global CO2 emissions in 2018. China, Japan and India are the worst culprits.
Food and Water
According to a 2016 Asia Development Bank report, 3.4 billion people could be living in "water stressed areas" by 2050. Chennai, India’s sixth largest city, is the latest city to have almost run out of water. Jakarta is slowly subsiding into the water as a result of unsustainable extraction of groundwater from aquifers below the city.
Cairo could run out of water because Ethiopia is damming the Nile River, which currently provides the city with 97% of its water supply. In the United States, damming of the Colorado River, combined with a nineteen year drought, has led some officials to determine that some reservoirs fed by the river will never be full again.
Low Cost Renewable Energy
In April 2019, more electricity was generated from renewables than coal in the USA for the first time.
A Californian solar and battery storage power purchase agreement has achieved record new lows for the cost of electricity from solar of 1.99c/kWh for 400MW of PV and 1.3c/kWh for stored solar power from a co-located 400MW/800MWh battery storage system.
A court in Kenya has rejected a Chinese proposal to build a coal fired power station in the country as part of China’s Belt and Road initiative.
In a report with scary barcharts, Global Energy Monitor has warned that up to US$ 1.3 trillion in new LNG export and import infrastructure currently under development worldwide is at significant risk of becoming stranded, as the world market for gas risks becoming oversupplied at a time when the continued emergence of lower cost renewable alternatives challenges the need for further gas supplies. Qatar, Australia and Mozambique could all be significantly adversely affected. Analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance shows that the falling costs of renewables combined with storage are now able to complete new gas generation on cost.
June 2019 saw the publication of separate analyses of the world energy sector by European energy consultancy REN21, by Bloomberg New Energy Finance and by BP. Fascinating though their findings are (to me at any rate) I will just try pick the nuggets out of the first two reports and leave BP’s annual statistics to my next Musing.
REN21 Renewables 2019 Global Status Report calculated that renewables accounted for 26.2% of electricity generation in 2018, 15.8% hydro, 5.5% wind and 2.4 % solar. Overall, renewable energy now provides 33% of the world’s total installed power generating capacity. During 2018 181 GW of renewable power generation capacity - 100 GW of which was solar PV and 51 GW wind - was added, for a cumulative 2,378 GW at year’s end. Global new investment in renewable power and fuels (not including hydropower projects larger than 50 MW) was US$ 288.9 billion in 2018, a decrease of 11% compared 2017. Investment in renewable power and fuels has exceeded US$ 280 billion per year for the past five years. For the fourth year in a row, additions of renewable power generation capacity outpaced net installations of fossil fuel and nuclear power combined. The renewable energy sector overall employed around 11 million people worldwide. Modern renewable energy met around 10% of worldwide heating and cooling demand in 2016, but its growth in the sector continues to be minor.
In 2017, the global population without access to electricity fell below the 1 billion mark, with 61% of those still lacking access living in sub-Saharan Africa and around 35% in developing Asia. With regard to energy for clean cooking, 2.7 billion people still did not have access in 2017, 33% of them living in sub-Saharan Africa and 64% of them in developing Asia. In 2017, more than 122 million people obtained access mainly through off-grid solar systems.
https://www.ren21.net/reports/global-status-report/
The New Energy Outlook of Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) calculated that the all-in costs of electricity from wind and utility-scale solar power have dropped by 49% and 85%, respectively, since 2010, making it cheaper than power from a new coal or gas-fired plant across two-thirds of the world, up from less than 1% only five years ago. BNEF predicts that price reductions in solar, energy storage and wind technologies will continue at rates of 28%, 18% and 14%, respectively, for every doubling in installed capacity. World electricity demand is set to increase by 62% by 2050, resulting in global generating capacity almost tripling. Wind and solar will grow from 7% of generation today to 48% by 2050. This will attract US$ 13.3 trillion in new investment, of which wind will take US$ 5.3 trillion and solar US$ 4.2 trillion. Coal’s role in the global power mix will fall from 37% today to 12% while oil as a power-generating source will be virtually eliminated. A third of solar PV will be deployed behind-the-meter by households and business, accounting for 5% of world electricity in 2050. Europe will lead the way in installing renewables with 92% of the continent’s power in 2020 coming from wind, solar and batteries.
Automation Based Unemployment
As you read on, you will note that automation, unemployment and inequality are becoming increasingly intertwined.
These days we take GPS for granted. Now, a study sponsored by the US government's National Institutes of Standards and Technology and performed by RTI International calculated that GPS has generated an estimated US$ 1.4 trillion in economic benefits for the private sector since it was installed in 1984. In the case of some adverse event leading to a widespread outage, the study estimates that the loss of the GPS service would have a US$ 1 billion per-day impact.
The OECD's latest Employment Outlook estimates that across its 34 member countries, 14% of existing jobs could disappear over the next 15 to 20 years, and 32% are likely to change radically. The proportion of union members among employees fell from 45.6% in 1986 to 13.7% while the percentage of employees covered by collective agreements declined from 83 per cent to 58.9 per cent over the same period.
Oxford Economics new report How Robots Change the World predicts that up to 20 million manufacturing jobs could be lost to robots by 2030. Robots will lead to twice as many manufacturing job losses in low-skill areas, thereby aggravating income inequality. About 1.7 million manufacturing jobs have already been lost to robots since 2000, including about 400,000 in Europe, 260,000 in the US, and 550,000 in China.
Research published by the World Economic Forum calculates that increasing automation is resulting in jobs moving back from low wage countries to the home countries of companies where a smaller workforce can perform the tasks. This reshoring increases employment and wages for high-skilled but not for low-skilled workers. Inequality rises as a consequence of the increasing gap between wages for high- and lower-skilled workers.
In the late 1960s, 97% of all American men between 25 and 54 years of age participated in the labour force, but by 2018 only 89% participated, with participation by non-college educated men leading the decline. Recent research suggests that the increase in opioid prescription rates between 1999 and 2015 could account for as much as 43% of the decline in the male participation rate. After steady gains, the participation rate for prime working-age women peaked at 77% in 1997, stagnated until 2000, fell during the Great Recession, recovered somewhat after 2015 to reach 75% in 2018.
Autonomous Electric Vehicles
According to REN21, the global number of electric passenger cars increased 63% in 2018 compared with 2017, and more cities are moving to electric bus fleets. The global stock of electric cars reached more than 5.1 million units in 2018, a 63% increase over 2017. However, EV markets remain highly concentrated, with China making up nearly 50% of the global EV stock. The first specific use of VRE to charge EVs was piloted in California in 2018. Globally, more than 100,000 public EV charging points were installed in 2018.
Dutch solar car manufacturer Lightyear has unveiled the first prototype of a long-range solar production car vehicle, that promises up to 800 kilometers of range, and the ability to top up the vehicle’s charge through solar panels integrated into the car’s design.
BMW plans to double sales of hybrid and electric vehicles over the next two years.
H55 has conducted the maiden flight of its Bristell Energic 2-seater electric plane above the Swiss city of Sion.
Nuro is the latest company trialling autonomous vehicles. Already Waymo is running a ride-hail service in Arizona, May Mobility is operating shuttles in Detroit and Rhode Island, and sundry robo-truck companies are hauling goods in Florida and the southwest. Volvo and logistics company DFDS are introducing fully automated Volvo Vera trucks into the Gotheburg port area for moving containers. Apple bought Drive.ai.
Uber’s aerial arm will shortly start delivering meals from McDonald’s and other restaurants to households in San Diego using drones that will fly to designated zones, where couriers will pick up the goods and deliver them to the final destination.
Increasing Inequality
Research by McKinsey shows labour’s share of income in 35 advanced economies fell from around 54% in 1980 to 50.5% in 2018. In the USA the fall was from 63.3% in 2000 to 56.7% in 2016. The main drivers for the decline were identified as supercycles and boom-bust (33%); rising depreciation and shift to IPP capital (26%); superstar effects and consolidation (18%); capital substitution and technology (12%); and globalisation and labour bargaining power (11%).
Research by Brookings calculated that labour’s share of income in the US private business sector declined by about 5.4% points between the periods 1998 to 2002 and 2012 to 2016. Without such a decline since 1998, average worker pay might be about $3,000 higher per year in real terms.
Southern Africa
Natura Energy subsidiary, TeraSun Energy, has announced a US$ 63.2 million investment in a 50MW solar plant in Arandis, western Namibia, as part of the government’s plan to reduce dependence on hydropower and imported electricity from South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Proudly powered by Weebly