24th January 2020 - What changes likely in the new year?
23rd January 2020 – Brian’s Musings – What changes likely in the new year?
Welcome to the forty fifth of Brian’s Musings. I trust you all had a peaceful festive season in which to contemplate where our crazy world is headed.
As usual there’s plenty in this musing to stimulate your thinking about where our world is headed so take your time to read it all.
People Change:
I continue to mull on how populations are changing – bigger, smaller, older, younger.
142,000 died from measles in 2018. The World Health Organisation believes the number of cases could have tripled in 2019. The WHO is not yet ready to call the Chinese SARS like virus a global emergency.
During 2019 Japan’s population declined by 500,000 people as a result of the number of births falling to the lowest number since 1874. The widening gap between births and deaths is resulting in fewer young people to replace retiring workers and to support people in their old age.
China faces a similar problem. China’s birth rate was a record low of 1.05% in 2019. A level of 2.1% is required to maintain population levels.
In Italy the situation is slightly better with a birth rate of 1.32% in 2019 and the lowest number of births in a year since unification in 1861. The number of births is less than half the number of deaths and 23% of Italians aged 65 and above. Unlike Japan and China, Italy’s population is sustained by immigrants who have a birth rate of 1.9% compared to 1.2% for native Italians.
DeepMind and Google Health used mammogram images from female patients in the America and Britain to train a new AI-based breast cancer detection system which diagnoses more accurately than human radiologists. Because of the shortage of radiologists, the system is not expected to cause job losses in the short term.
Migration:
According to the Nuffield Trust, nearly 25% of British hospital staff are foreign born, with 26.8% of doctors and 15% of nurses trained outside the country. (This is obviously a serious concern for the countries whose taxpayers paid for their medical training).
Climate Change and the Environment:
According to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth's global surface temperatures in 2019 were the second warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880, second only to those of 2016. The past five years have been the warmest of the last 140 years. 2019 temperatures were 0.98 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean.
Research published in Advances In Atmospheric Sciences shows ocean temperatures in 2019 were the highest on record and that the increase from the previous peak was the highest recorded to date.
The Global Carbon Project Global calculated that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels rose 0.6% in 2019, the third successive annual rise. Over the past decade, global emissions have risen by 15% despite a three-year period, between 2013 and 2016, when they were flat.
According to the Rhodium Group, American greenhouse gas emissions dropped 2% in 2019 as a result of renewable electricity generation replacing coal fired power stations. Coal consumption dropped 18% in 2019 to the lowest point since 1975. US emissions have dropped 13% since 2007.
A report by the Global Alliance on Health and Pollution found pollution to be the largest environmental cause of premature death on the planet, causing 15% of all deaths. India and China led in the number of pollution deaths, with about 2.3 million and 1.8 million respectively, followed by Nigeria, Indonesia and Pakistan.
In November 2019, the air in Delhi was so noxious that authorities declared a public health emergency and ordered the closure of schools in the city and surrounding suburbs for several days. All dirty fuel-based industries were also ordered to be closed by the Supreme Court mandated Environment Pollution Prevention and Control Authority. A study showed that India's toxic air caused 1.24 million lives in 2017, 12.5% of the deaths recorded that year in India.
A year ago, Sydney and Melbourne were rated two of the most liveable cities in the world. Today smoke from bush fires, many out of control, has led to health warnings in both cities as pollution levels soared to levels experienced in China and India. 2019 was the hottest on record for Australia with the temperature reaching 1.52C above the long-term average, data from the Bureau of Meteorology confirms. The national average rainfall total for the year was 277.63 millimetres, well below the previous record low of 314.46 mm in 1902. Carbon dioxide emissions from the fires are approaching Australia’s total 2018 emissions. Meanwhile the government continues to deny the impact of climate change and was at the forefront, with the USA and Saudi Arabia, in frustrating attempts to formulate an international plan to counter climate change.
Australia’s high temperatures have been partially attributed to the extreme Indian Ocean dipole which also caused parts of East Africa to experience up to 300% of their long term average rainfall for October and November 2019, resulting in flooding, landslides and deaths. Meanwhile nearby Central Africa was experiencing a severe drought which, among other things, caused the magnificent Victoria Falls to become a mere trickle.
According to Christian Aid, climate breakdown played a key role in at least 15 events in 2019 that each cost more than US$ one billion in damage, with more than half of those costing more than US$ 10 billion each. Extreme weather including floods, storms, droughts and wildfires struck every inhabited continent in the past year, causing devastation and loss of life.
New international regulations came into force on January 1 that drastically reduce the amount of sulphur oxides that ships can emit.
Every 1C of temperature increase on the plains corresponds to a 2C rise in the mountains. As a result, European ski resorts are being closed or abandoned. In Italy alone more than 180 have closed since 2011. Snow cover has been declining by five days per decade in the Northern Hemisphere. Of 21 resorts used for Olympic Winter Games, only 13 would have enough snow to host a 2050 games.
Greenland has lost 3.8 trillion tonnes of ice since 1992, and the rate of ice loss has risen from 33 billion tonnes a year in the 1990s to 254 billion tonnes a year in the past decade.
Research published in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives, used research data from 16 countries to show a strong statistical link between toxic air and depression and suicide.
Low Cost Renewable Energy:
According to IHS, 2019 solar installations outside China are expected to have grown by as much as 53% compared to 2018. Europe almost doubled the amount of new solar capacity installed but China’s rate of PV installations dropped 54% in the first nine months of 2019 compared to 2018.
IHS’s 2020 Global Photovoltaic Demand Forecast predicts a 14% rise in the amount of new solar generation capacity installed in 2020 compared to 2019 with 142 GW of new solar installed. SolarPower Europe predicts that European countries will install 16.7 GW of new solar in 2020, more than double that of 2019. Spain is leading the way with an expected 4.7 GW of new solar, followed by Germany, with 4 GW. Australia is forecast to add 3.6 GW of solar and wind in 2020.
DNV GL, an accreditation and research group, sees Canada and the United States increasing population and wealth, yet still lowering total energy use by 30% while shifting toward almost 90% CO2 free electricity by the year 2050.
BNEF has concluded that around two-thirds of the world’s population now live in countries in which wind or solar are the lowest-cost ways of generating power. The world records for low-cost wind and solar are both now down to around US$ 17/MWh. That is around a third of the cost of new gas-powered generation, even in America where there is a glut of cheap gas.
Denmark plans to build artificial islands for windfarms.
Scotland is expected to be generating 100% of electricity from renewables by later in 2020.
According to the IEA, worldwide demand for coal fell in 2019 after rising in 2017 and 2018. Further drops are not expected unless there are significant moves to address climate change. According to the IEEFA, the declines were led by China, the USA, the European Union and Japan.
According to the IEA, 15.1 GW of coal fired generation capacity in the USA was closed in 2019. In 2019 US greenhouse gas emissions fell 2.1% as electricity generated from coal dropped by 18% to lows last seen in 1975.
The German government has reached a commercial agreement to accelerate the phasing out of coal fired power stations.
Mass Data Mining and Storage:
America’s Homeland Security plans to scan US citizens’ faces as they enter the country
The British government is coming under fire for a deal to hand over NHS healthcare information to Amazon for free.
Automation Based Unemployment:
Dutch food delivery company Takeaway.com reported orders increased 70% in 2019 as customers opted to buy ready cooked meals instead of shopping in a supermarket and cooking at home.
A Wells Fargo security analyst predicts that automation could lead to 200,000 job losses in the USA by 2030.
Research from The Century Foundation on the impact of the introduction of robots in the American Midwest region from 2009 to 2017 found that economic growth in the region largely masked the impact of new robot installations. However, in the manufacturing industries, the introduction of robots led to job losses as well as lower worker remuneration, with people with no tertiary qualifications most adversely affected.
Autonomous Electric Vehicles:
The number of electric vehicle models available to European buyers will jump from fewer than 100 to 175 by the end of 2020, according to data firm IHS Markit. By 2025 there will be more than 330, based on an analysis of company announcements.
According to forecasts from Bloomberg New Energy Finance UK EV sales will rise from 3.4% of all vehicles sold in 2019 to 5.5% in 2020. By 2026 electric vehicle sales will account for a fifth of sales in the UK. Similar predictions from LMC Automotive suggest 540,000 electric cars will be sold across the EU in 2020, up from 319,000 in 2019.
Tesla’s share price has surged making the company more valuable than Ford and GM combined. The company opened a mega factory in China in late 2019.
Volkswagen is planning to make a major investment in Chinese battery maker Guoxuan.
New European Union rules came into force on 1 January that will heavily penalise carmakers if average carbon dioxide emissions from the cars they sell rise above 95g per kilometre.
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, in 2007 almost half of all buyers of new light-duty vehicles in the USA were under the age of 45. In 2017, more than half were over the age of 55. The average age of an American passenger car has doubled since 1970.
The price of battery packs has dropped 87% since 2010, according to a report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. With rising efficiency and evolving supply chains, cumulative demand will bring prices of electric vehicles down to parity with internal combustion engine vehicles by 2024.
Scientists at Monash University claim to have developed the world’s most efficient lithium-sulphur battery which could enable an electric vehicle to drive more than 1,000 km on a single charge.
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis found that ExxonMobil, BP, Chevron, Total, and Shell, collectively have rewarded stockholders with $536 billion in dividends and share buybacks since 2010, while generating just $329 billion in free cash flow over the same period.
Increasing Inequality:
A study of older people in the United Kingdom and USA showed that being wealthy adds nine years to life expectancy, as well as increasing the number of years of quality life.
A 2009 study conducted by researchers at Harvard Medical School found 45,000 Americans die every year as a direct result of not having any health insurance coverage. In 2018, 27.8 million Americans went without any health insurance for the entire year. A 2017 analysis found the United States ranks 24th globally in achieving health goals set by the United Nations. Despite millions of Americans delaying medical treatment due to the costs, the US still spends the most on healthcare of any developed nation in the world, while covering fewer people and achieving worse overall health outcomes. In 2018, US$ 3.65 trillion was spent on healthcare in the United States, and these costs are projected to grow at an annual rate of 5.5% over the next decade.
Research by the Washington Center for Equitable Growth shows the share of American income earned by the wealthiest 10% has increased by 6% points since 1963; one percent of Americans now own 31% of all wealth in the country, and the top 10% owns 70%, while the 50% of Americans with the lowest wealth own just 1.2%; American inequality has increased much faster than that in Europe; the probability of young people being wealthier than their parents has dropped significantly; and increased wealth is buying more education, longer lives and better health for the wealthy.
Still in America, 45 million people are paying off US$ 1.6 trillion of student debt.
Southern Africa:
Southern Africa is in the throes of a climate emergency, with hunger levels in the region on a previously unseen scale, according to the United Nations World Food Program. Years of drought, widespread flooding and economic disarray have left 45 million people facing severe food shortages, with women and children bearing the brunt of the crisis. Zimbabwe is already facing its worst hunger emergency in a decade, with half the population acutely food insecure. About 20% of people in Zambia and Lesotho face acute food insecurity, as does 10% of the population of Namibia.
Welcome to the forty fifth of Brian’s Musings. I trust you all had a peaceful festive season in which to contemplate where our crazy world is headed.
As usual there’s plenty in this musing to stimulate your thinking about where our world is headed so take your time to read it all.
People Change:
I continue to mull on how populations are changing – bigger, smaller, older, younger.
142,000 died from measles in 2018. The World Health Organisation believes the number of cases could have tripled in 2019. The WHO is not yet ready to call the Chinese SARS like virus a global emergency.
During 2019 Japan’s population declined by 500,000 people as a result of the number of births falling to the lowest number since 1874. The widening gap between births and deaths is resulting in fewer young people to replace retiring workers and to support people in their old age.
China faces a similar problem. China’s birth rate was a record low of 1.05% in 2019. A level of 2.1% is required to maintain population levels.
In Italy the situation is slightly better with a birth rate of 1.32% in 2019 and the lowest number of births in a year since unification in 1861. The number of births is less than half the number of deaths and 23% of Italians aged 65 and above. Unlike Japan and China, Italy’s population is sustained by immigrants who have a birth rate of 1.9% compared to 1.2% for native Italians.
DeepMind and Google Health used mammogram images from female patients in the America and Britain to train a new AI-based breast cancer detection system which diagnoses more accurately than human radiologists. Because of the shortage of radiologists, the system is not expected to cause job losses in the short term.
Migration:
According to the Nuffield Trust, nearly 25% of British hospital staff are foreign born, with 26.8% of doctors and 15% of nurses trained outside the country. (This is obviously a serious concern for the countries whose taxpayers paid for their medical training).
Climate Change and the Environment:
According to independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth's global surface temperatures in 2019 were the second warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880, second only to those of 2016. The past five years have been the warmest of the last 140 years. 2019 temperatures were 0.98 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean.
Research published in Advances In Atmospheric Sciences shows ocean temperatures in 2019 were the highest on record and that the increase from the previous peak was the highest recorded to date.
The Global Carbon Project Global calculated that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels rose 0.6% in 2019, the third successive annual rise. Over the past decade, global emissions have risen by 15% despite a three-year period, between 2013 and 2016, when they were flat.
According to the Rhodium Group, American greenhouse gas emissions dropped 2% in 2019 as a result of renewable electricity generation replacing coal fired power stations. Coal consumption dropped 18% in 2019 to the lowest point since 1975. US emissions have dropped 13% since 2007.
A report by the Global Alliance on Health and Pollution found pollution to be the largest environmental cause of premature death on the planet, causing 15% of all deaths. India and China led in the number of pollution deaths, with about 2.3 million and 1.8 million respectively, followed by Nigeria, Indonesia and Pakistan.
In November 2019, the air in Delhi was so noxious that authorities declared a public health emergency and ordered the closure of schools in the city and surrounding suburbs for several days. All dirty fuel-based industries were also ordered to be closed by the Supreme Court mandated Environment Pollution Prevention and Control Authority. A study showed that India's toxic air caused 1.24 million lives in 2017, 12.5% of the deaths recorded that year in India.
A year ago, Sydney and Melbourne were rated two of the most liveable cities in the world. Today smoke from bush fires, many out of control, has led to health warnings in both cities as pollution levels soared to levels experienced in China and India. 2019 was the hottest on record for Australia with the temperature reaching 1.52C above the long-term average, data from the Bureau of Meteorology confirms. The national average rainfall total for the year was 277.63 millimetres, well below the previous record low of 314.46 mm in 1902. Carbon dioxide emissions from the fires are approaching Australia’s total 2018 emissions. Meanwhile the government continues to deny the impact of climate change and was at the forefront, with the USA and Saudi Arabia, in frustrating attempts to formulate an international plan to counter climate change.
Australia’s high temperatures have been partially attributed to the extreme Indian Ocean dipole which also caused parts of East Africa to experience up to 300% of their long term average rainfall for October and November 2019, resulting in flooding, landslides and deaths. Meanwhile nearby Central Africa was experiencing a severe drought which, among other things, caused the magnificent Victoria Falls to become a mere trickle.
According to Christian Aid, climate breakdown played a key role in at least 15 events in 2019 that each cost more than US$ one billion in damage, with more than half of those costing more than US$ 10 billion each. Extreme weather including floods, storms, droughts and wildfires struck every inhabited continent in the past year, causing devastation and loss of life.
New international regulations came into force on January 1 that drastically reduce the amount of sulphur oxides that ships can emit.
Every 1C of temperature increase on the plains corresponds to a 2C rise in the mountains. As a result, European ski resorts are being closed or abandoned. In Italy alone more than 180 have closed since 2011. Snow cover has been declining by five days per decade in the Northern Hemisphere. Of 21 resorts used for Olympic Winter Games, only 13 would have enough snow to host a 2050 games.
Greenland has lost 3.8 trillion tonnes of ice since 1992, and the rate of ice loss has risen from 33 billion tonnes a year in the 1990s to 254 billion tonnes a year in the past decade.
Research published in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives, used research data from 16 countries to show a strong statistical link between toxic air and depression and suicide.
Low Cost Renewable Energy:
According to IHS, 2019 solar installations outside China are expected to have grown by as much as 53% compared to 2018. Europe almost doubled the amount of new solar capacity installed but China’s rate of PV installations dropped 54% in the first nine months of 2019 compared to 2018.
IHS’s 2020 Global Photovoltaic Demand Forecast predicts a 14% rise in the amount of new solar generation capacity installed in 2020 compared to 2019 with 142 GW of new solar installed. SolarPower Europe predicts that European countries will install 16.7 GW of new solar in 2020, more than double that of 2019. Spain is leading the way with an expected 4.7 GW of new solar, followed by Germany, with 4 GW. Australia is forecast to add 3.6 GW of solar and wind in 2020.
DNV GL, an accreditation and research group, sees Canada and the United States increasing population and wealth, yet still lowering total energy use by 30% while shifting toward almost 90% CO2 free electricity by the year 2050.
BNEF has concluded that around two-thirds of the world’s population now live in countries in which wind or solar are the lowest-cost ways of generating power. The world records for low-cost wind and solar are both now down to around US$ 17/MWh. That is around a third of the cost of new gas-powered generation, even in America where there is a glut of cheap gas.
Denmark plans to build artificial islands for windfarms.
Scotland is expected to be generating 100% of electricity from renewables by later in 2020.
According to the IEA, worldwide demand for coal fell in 2019 after rising in 2017 and 2018. Further drops are not expected unless there are significant moves to address climate change. According to the IEEFA, the declines were led by China, the USA, the European Union and Japan.
According to the IEA, 15.1 GW of coal fired generation capacity in the USA was closed in 2019. In 2019 US greenhouse gas emissions fell 2.1% as electricity generated from coal dropped by 18% to lows last seen in 1975.
The German government has reached a commercial agreement to accelerate the phasing out of coal fired power stations.
Mass Data Mining and Storage:
America’s Homeland Security plans to scan US citizens’ faces as they enter the country
The British government is coming under fire for a deal to hand over NHS healthcare information to Amazon for free.
Automation Based Unemployment:
Dutch food delivery company Takeaway.com reported orders increased 70% in 2019 as customers opted to buy ready cooked meals instead of shopping in a supermarket and cooking at home.
A Wells Fargo security analyst predicts that automation could lead to 200,000 job losses in the USA by 2030.
Research from The Century Foundation on the impact of the introduction of robots in the American Midwest region from 2009 to 2017 found that economic growth in the region largely masked the impact of new robot installations. However, in the manufacturing industries, the introduction of robots led to job losses as well as lower worker remuneration, with people with no tertiary qualifications most adversely affected.
Autonomous Electric Vehicles:
The number of electric vehicle models available to European buyers will jump from fewer than 100 to 175 by the end of 2020, according to data firm IHS Markit. By 2025 there will be more than 330, based on an analysis of company announcements.
According to forecasts from Bloomberg New Energy Finance UK EV sales will rise from 3.4% of all vehicles sold in 2019 to 5.5% in 2020. By 2026 electric vehicle sales will account for a fifth of sales in the UK. Similar predictions from LMC Automotive suggest 540,000 electric cars will be sold across the EU in 2020, up from 319,000 in 2019.
Tesla’s share price has surged making the company more valuable than Ford and GM combined. The company opened a mega factory in China in late 2019.
Volkswagen is planning to make a major investment in Chinese battery maker Guoxuan.
New European Union rules came into force on 1 January that will heavily penalise carmakers if average carbon dioxide emissions from the cars they sell rise above 95g per kilometre.
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, in 2007 almost half of all buyers of new light-duty vehicles in the USA were under the age of 45. In 2017, more than half were over the age of 55. The average age of an American passenger car has doubled since 1970.
The price of battery packs has dropped 87% since 2010, according to a report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. With rising efficiency and evolving supply chains, cumulative demand will bring prices of electric vehicles down to parity with internal combustion engine vehicles by 2024.
Scientists at Monash University claim to have developed the world’s most efficient lithium-sulphur battery which could enable an electric vehicle to drive more than 1,000 km on a single charge.
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis found that ExxonMobil, BP, Chevron, Total, and Shell, collectively have rewarded stockholders with $536 billion in dividends and share buybacks since 2010, while generating just $329 billion in free cash flow over the same period.
Increasing Inequality:
A study of older people in the United Kingdom and USA showed that being wealthy adds nine years to life expectancy, as well as increasing the number of years of quality life.
A 2009 study conducted by researchers at Harvard Medical School found 45,000 Americans die every year as a direct result of not having any health insurance coverage. In 2018, 27.8 million Americans went without any health insurance for the entire year. A 2017 analysis found the United States ranks 24th globally in achieving health goals set by the United Nations. Despite millions of Americans delaying medical treatment due to the costs, the US still spends the most on healthcare of any developed nation in the world, while covering fewer people and achieving worse overall health outcomes. In 2018, US$ 3.65 trillion was spent on healthcare in the United States, and these costs are projected to grow at an annual rate of 5.5% over the next decade.
Research by the Washington Center for Equitable Growth shows the share of American income earned by the wealthiest 10% has increased by 6% points since 1963; one percent of Americans now own 31% of all wealth in the country, and the top 10% owns 70%, while the 50% of Americans with the lowest wealth own just 1.2%; American inequality has increased much faster than that in Europe; the probability of young people being wealthier than their parents has dropped significantly; and increased wealth is buying more education, longer lives and better health for the wealthy.
Still in America, 45 million people are paying off US$ 1.6 trillion of student debt.
Southern Africa:
Southern Africa is in the throes of a climate emergency, with hunger levels in the region on a previously unseen scale, according to the United Nations World Food Program. Years of drought, widespread flooding and economic disarray have left 45 million people facing severe food shortages, with women and children bearing the brunt of the crisis. Zimbabwe is already facing its worst hunger emergency in a decade, with half the population acutely food insecure. About 20% of people in Zambia and Lesotho face acute food insecurity, as does 10% of the population of Namibia.
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