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another energy update

Another Energy Update
 
Hardly a day goes by without some or other aspect of energy being in the news. The annual BP Statistical Review of World Energy, published in June, provides a useful pointer to where things stand. I have pulled out some of the more interesting and relevant numbers and added some of my own comments for you to mull on, even if numbers and energy are not your normal cup of tea.
 
Although primary energy consumption in North America and Europe dropped marginally during the past decade, overall there was an average world increase of 1.8% per annum. Of course this is not a bad thing if the increase was as a result of renewable energy. However, although renewable energy generation increased more than 40% in 2016 versus 2015, energy from each of oil, gas and coal also increased.
 
During 2016 world oil and gas reserves (i.e. oil and gas still in the ground) each increased marginally and can fuel the world for 50 years at current production levels. However one should remember that BP’s calculation of Saudi Arabian oil reserves, 15.6% of the world total, have been called into question. 2016 world oil production increased just 0.5% over 2015 despite drops in American production and large increases in Iranian and Iraqi production. Over the past decade world oil production and consumption have each increased by an average of just 1% per annum while gas production increased by an average 2.4% per annum. The often forgotten biofuels market has continued to grow strongly. Although coal production increased an average 2.7% per annum over the past decade, 2016 production was 6% lower than 2015. Despite Chinese ambitions to be leaders in the solar revolution, the country continues to build coal fired power stations at a rapid rate.
 
On the electrical energy front, consumption of nuclear power has remained more or less constant for several years, while hydro consumption increased 2.8% just in 2016. However with nuclear plants being decommissioned in Europe and the USA and the new builds in the United Kingdom, France and Finland billions over budget and years behind schedule the future of nuclear does not look bright.
 
The growth rate of renewable energy has averaged an impressive compound 16% per annum over the past decade. As a result, world renewable energy consumption in 2016 was above 70% of nuclear and 45% of hydro. Solar energy usage has grown by an average 50.7% per year in the past decade, albeit off a small base, while wind power grew at a compound 23% over the same period. It’s not clear if BP has just counted the commercial solar power generators; in Australia, despite the government’s strong bias to coal, for instance, more than 25% of homes there now have solar panels.
 
During 2016 crude oil prices were below US$ 45 per barrel, the lowest since 2004 and some 20% down on 2015 and more than 60% down on 2014. The 2016 price of gas was approximately 50% of that two years earlier. Coal prices in 2016 were marginally higher than in 2015 but significantly lower than the bumper year of 2011. It will be interesting to see how these prices are changed by new field developments in Iran and Iraq and by the squeeze on Qatar, one of the world’s top gas producers.
 
World carbon dioxide emissions grew just 0.1% in 2016, down from a 1.6% average over the previous ten years.
 
Many of the BP data series go back fifty years or more making it easy to draw graphs and do simple projections. However I suspect we might be reaching the point where the past is not necessarily a good predictor of the future of energy. For instance, it’s a pity BP hasn’t included numbers showing how the costs of renewable energy have plummeted over the past few years. With Tesla about to start large scale production of their new model of electric car, Volvo announcing that from 2019 there will only be electric and hybrid models and France phasing out polluting vehicles by 2040, a table showing the numbers of diesel, petrol and electric vehicles would be another useful addition to BP’s numbers. Yesterday Tesla announced plans to build a massive battery plant in Australia; storage is another area in need of some cost and usage statistics.


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  • Home
  • Brian's Blog
  • Musings
    • Brian's 2020 Newlsetters >
      • 28th June 2020 – Mulling a Covid Afterlife
      • 31st May 2020 - Unlocking your mind while in Lockdown
      • 19th April, 2020 – More stimulants for lockdown contemplation
      • 3rd April 2020 - PLanning Ahead in a Time of Plague
      • 19th March 2020 – More to Mull on in Splendid Isolation
      • 24th February, 2020 - The Corona Virus and Much More
      • 24th January 2020 - What changes likely in the new year?
    • Brian's 2019 Newsletters >
      • 23rd November 2019 - Another fascinating mix from around the world
      • 30th October 2019 - Where are we headed now?
      • 10th October 2019 - Another tour of the issues
      • 27th August 2019 -Brighter than usual
      • 2nd August 2019 - Mostly more gloom and doom
      • 5th July 2019 - Not much improvement anywhere
      • 19th June 2019 - Better late than neverNew Page
      • 27th April 2019 - More to make you think about the future
      • April 2019 Letters to the Editor of Business Day
      • 2nd April 2019 - Another Month of Mixed News
      • 27th February 2019 - More good news than bad
      • 4th February 2019 - Trying to make sense of it all
    • 2018 >
      • 29th December 2018 - Preparing for 2019
      • 3th November 2018 - Death by Hot Air and Other Cautionary Tales
      • 26th October 2018 – The Case of the Treacherous Till Slip and Other Interesting Tales
      • October 2018 - Feedback on Draft Integrated Resource Plan for South Africa
      • 21st September 2018 - The Information Flow Continues
      • 31st August 2018 - Reading for the first weekend of spring / autumn
      • 31st July 2018 - Watching the World
      • 13th July 2018 - Energy Update 2018
      • 31st May 2018 - Grime and Punishment
      • 20th April, 2018 - The Equaliser Conspiracy
      • 3rd April, 2018 - More Fascinating Facts and Figures
      • 28th February, 2018 - World Update
    • 2017 >
      • 29th November 2017 - Guessing Our Future
      • 29th July 2017 – Basic Income Grant
      • 26th July 2017 – Ideas for a Brighter South Africa
      • 3rd July 2017 - Another Energy Update
      • 8th May 2017 – Trucking and Selling
      • 12th April 2017 - False News Today
      • 22nd March 2017 - Predicting Speed of Change
      • 27th February 2017 - Growing Inequality
      • 11th January 2017 - Medical Data Mining
    • 2016 >
      • 13th December 2016 - American Irony
      • 25th November 2016 - Global Decision Making
      • 30th October 2016 - Climate Changes
      • 11th October 2016 - Musing Investments
      • 19th September 2016 - The Inexorable Five
      • 2nd September 2016 - Driving Forward
      • 17th August 2016 - Innovationv Update
      • 19th July 2016 - Powering Along
      • 4th July 2016 – An Eye to the Future
      • 10th June 2016 - Reverse Education
      • 20th May 2016 - More Minding P's and Q's
      • 5th May 2016 - A Leisurely Future
      • 17th April 2016 - More Food for Thought
      • 29th March 2016 – America’s Digital Colonisation of the World
      • 11th March 2016 - Measuring Life
      • 26th February 2016 - Growing Older, Growing More
      • 12th February 2016 – Retirement Reflections
      • 29th January 2016 - Just Four More Years to 2020 >
        • 15th January 2016 - A Taste of Red and White
  • Books