another energy update
Another Energy Update
Hardly a day goes by without some or other aspect of energy being in the news. The annual BP Statistical Review of World Energy, published in June, provides a useful pointer to where things stand. I have pulled out some of the more interesting and relevant numbers and added some of my own comments for you to mull on, even if numbers and energy are not your normal cup of tea.
Although primary energy consumption in North America and Europe dropped marginally during the past decade, overall there was an average world increase of 1.8% per annum. Of course this is not a bad thing if the increase was as a result of renewable energy. However, although renewable energy generation increased more than 40% in 2016 versus 2015, energy from each of oil, gas and coal also increased.
During 2016 world oil and gas reserves (i.e. oil and gas still in the ground) each increased marginally and can fuel the world for 50 years at current production levels. However one should remember that BP’s calculation of Saudi Arabian oil reserves, 15.6% of the world total, have been called into question. 2016 world oil production increased just 0.5% over 2015 despite drops in American production and large increases in Iranian and Iraqi production. Over the past decade world oil production and consumption have each increased by an average of just 1% per annum while gas production increased by an average 2.4% per annum. The often forgotten biofuels market has continued to grow strongly. Although coal production increased an average 2.7% per annum over the past decade, 2016 production was 6% lower than 2015. Despite Chinese ambitions to be leaders in the solar revolution, the country continues to build coal fired power stations at a rapid rate.
On the electrical energy front, consumption of nuclear power has remained more or less constant for several years, while hydro consumption increased 2.8% just in 2016. However with nuclear plants being decommissioned in Europe and the USA and the new builds in the United Kingdom, France and Finland billions over budget and years behind schedule the future of nuclear does not look bright.
The growth rate of renewable energy has averaged an impressive compound 16% per annum over the past decade. As a result, world renewable energy consumption in 2016 was above 70% of nuclear and 45% of hydro. Solar energy usage has grown by an average 50.7% per year in the past decade, albeit off a small base, while wind power grew at a compound 23% over the same period. It’s not clear if BP has just counted the commercial solar power generators; in Australia, despite the government’s strong bias to coal, for instance, more than 25% of homes there now have solar panels.
During 2016 crude oil prices were below US$ 45 per barrel, the lowest since 2004 and some 20% down on 2015 and more than 60% down on 2014. The 2016 price of gas was approximately 50% of that two years earlier. Coal prices in 2016 were marginally higher than in 2015 but significantly lower than the bumper year of 2011. It will be interesting to see how these prices are changed by new field developments in Iran and Iraq and by the squeeze on Qatar, one of the world’s top gas producers.
World carbon dioxide emissions grew just 0.1% in 2016, down from a 1.6% average over the previous ten years.
Many of the BP data series go back fifty years or more making it easy to draw graphs and do simple projections. However I suspect we might be reaching the point where the past is not necessarily a good predictor of the future of energy. For instance, it’s a pity BP hasn’t included numbers showing how the costs of renewable energy have plummeted over the past few years. With Tesla about to start large scale production of their new model of electric car, Volvo announcing that from 2019 there will only be electric and hybrid models and France phasing out polluting vehicles by 2040, a table showing the numbers of diesel, petrol and electric vehicles would be another useful addition to BP’s numbers. Yesterday Tesla announced plans to build a massive battery plant in Australia; storage is another area in need of some cost and usage statistics.
Hardly a day goes by without some or other aspect of energy being in the news. The annual BP Statistical Review of World Energy, published in June, provides a useful pointer to where things stand. I have pulled out some of the more interesting and relevant numbers and added some of my own comments for you to mull on, even if numbers and energy are not your normal cup of tea.
Although primary energy consumption in North America and Europe dropped marginally during the past decade, overall there was an average world increase of 1.8% per annum. Of course this is not a bad thing if the increase was as a result of renewable energy. However, although renewable energy generation increased more than 40% in 2016 versus 2015, energy from each of oil, gas and coal also increased.
During 2016 world oil and gas reserves (i.e. oil and gas still in the ground) each increased marginally and can fuel the world for 50 years at current production levels. However one should remember that BP’s calculation of Saudi Arabian oil reserves, 15.6% of the world total, have been called into question. 2016 world oil production increased just 0.5% over 2015 despite drops in American production and large increases in Iranian and Iraqi production. Over the past decade world oil production and consumption have each increased by an average of just 1% per annum while gas production increased by an average 2.4% per annum. The often forgotten biofuels market has continued to grow strongly. Although coal production increased an average 2.7% per annum over the past decade, 2016 production was 6% lower than 2015. Despite Chinese ambitions to be leaders in the solar revolution, the country continues to build coal fired power stations at a rapid rate.
On the electrical energy front, consumption of nuclear power has remained more or less constant for several years, while hydro consumption increased 2.8% just in 2016. However with nuclear plants being decommissioned in Europe and the USA and the new builds in the United Kingdom, France and Finland billions over budget and years behind schedule the future of nuclear does not look bright.
The growth rate of renewable energy has averaged an impressive compound 16% per annum over the past decade. As a result, world renewable energy consumption in 2016 was above 70% of nuclear and 45% of hydro. Solar energy usage has grown by an average 50.7% per year in the past decade, albeit off a small base, while wind power grew at a compound 23% over the same period. It’s not clear if BP has just counted the commercial solar power generators; in Australia, despite the government’s strong bias to coal, for instance, more than 25% of homes there now have solar panels.
During 2016 crude oil prices were below US$ 45 per barrel, the lowest since 2004 and some 20% down on 2015 and more than 60% down on 2014. The 2016 price of gas was approximately 50% of that two years earlier. Coal prices in 2016 were marginally higher than in 2015 but significantly lower than the bumper year of 2011. It will be interesting to see how these prices are changed by new field developments in Iran and Iraq and by the squeeze on Qatar, one of the world’s top gas producers.
World carbon dioxide emissions grew just 0.1% in 2016, down from a 1.6% average over the previous ten years.
Many of the BP data series go back fifty years or more making it easy to draw graphs and do simple projections. However I suspect we might be reaching the point where the past is not necessarily a good predictor of the future of energy. For instance, it’s a pity BP hasn’t included numbers showing how the costs of renewable energy have plummeted over the past few years. With Tesla about to start large scale production of their new model of electric car, Volvo announcing that from 2019 there will only be electric and hybrid models and France phasing out polluting vehicles by 2040, a table showing the numbers of diesel, petrol and electric vehicles would be another useful addition to BP’s numbers. Yesterday Tesla announced plans to build a massive battery plant in Australia; storage is another area in need of some cost and usage statistics.
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