31st May 2020 - Unlocking your mind while in Lockdown
Unlocking your mind while in Lockdown
Australia’s Commission for the Human Future produced a widely publicised report Surviving and Thriving in the 21st Century which details ten risks to life on the planet. Most of them are covered regularly in these Musings apart from the danger of a nuclear war.
One topic they didn’t cover was the future of money. And here I don’t mean the grubby bank notes and coins that no one is prepared to accept any more for fear of picking up a covid infection. Everywhere, countries are madly printing cash to pay for keeping their economies going while at the same time coping with the pandemic. Back in the old days of the gold standard you could, theoretically at least, take your dollar bill to the Reserve Bank and swap it for a fraction of a nugget. But now countries are running up massive deficits with no plan for how they will pay the interest, let alone reduce the deficit. Higher taxes on the rich and a big dollop of inflation could help but neither is palatable to most governments. It’s a strange world we live in.
People Change:
According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), malaria infected more than 228 million people worldwide in 2018 and killed more than 405,000, the majority of them children under five. Some 94% of global deaths from malaria occurred in sub-Saharan Africa. The WHO has warned deaths from malaria in 2020 across sub-Saharan Africa could double to more than 750,000 if work to prevent the disease through the delivery of insecticide-treated nets and antimalarial medicines is disrupted by Covid-19.
A paper published by Melbourne based researchers in Cell & Host Microbe claimed that they had found a way to prevent malaria from progressing from the livers of mice.
The WHO and the European Investment Bank are joining forces to create an African malaria fund.
In my last Musing I reported on an American study that showed higher numbers of Covid deaths in polluted areas. Now similar research analysing coronavirus deaths across 66 administrative regions in Italy, Spain, France and Germany found 78% of them occurred in the five most polluted regions.
In a paper published in Nature Energy, American health researchers found that asthma attacks and asthma-related emergency department visits in communities near coal-fired power stations fell in the years after those power stations closed.
Migration:
Annual statistics published by the Norwegian Refugee Council’s Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre calculated that by the end of 2019, 45.7 million people were internally displaced as a result of violence in 61 countries.
Climate Change and the Environment:
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates there is a 75% chance that 2020 will be the hottest year since measurements began with no impact from El Niño or La Niña conditions. Carbon Brief has come to a similar conclusion. The first three months of 2020 were the second warmest on record, behind the first quarter of super-El Niño-fuelled 2016.
According to the European State of the Climate 2019 Report, Europe experienced its hottest year on record in 2019, with periods of exceptional heat in February, June and July, and one of the wettest Novembers on record. Previous records were broken by only a small margin, but the findings confirmed that 11 out of the 12 warmest years in Europe have occurred in the past two decades.
Near-record sea surface temperatures have driven extensive coral bleaching during the southern hemisphere summer.
New research suggests the spectacular eruptions of the Kīlauea volcano in Hawaii in 2018 were triggered by extreme rainfall in the preceding months raising the possibility that climate breakdown, which is causing more extreme weather, could lead to an increase in eruptions around the world.
A survey of 100 top climate scientists published in Climate and Atmospheric Science predicts a sea level rise of one metre by 2100 unless Greenland and Antarctic ice melting is halted.
The World Resources Institute calculates that 147 million people will be hit by floods from rivers and coasts annually by 2030, compared with 72 million people in 2010. Damages to urban property will increase from US$ 174 billion to US$ 712 billion per year.
The biggest assessment of global insect abundances to date shows a drop of almost 25% in the last 30 years, with accelerating declines in Europe.
The International Seabed Authority is planning loosen restrictions on deep-sea mining later in 2020.
As a result of a court ruling in a case brought by the Urgenda Foundation, the Dutch government has announced measures including huge cuts to coal use, garden greening and limits on livestock herds as part of its plan to lower emissions to comply with the ruling.
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund sold its stakes in Glencore, Anglo American and RWE as they breached the fund’s guidelines on use of coal. Legal and General Investment Management, Britain’s largest asset manager, will oppose the re-election of Exxon Mobil’s chairman over what it called a lack of ambition on tackling climate change.
Ethiopia has completed the construction of the massive Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile and plans to start filling it when the rainy season starts in July, despite protests from Egypt and Sudan which are dependant on the Nile for their livelihoods.
Food and Water:
Dutch biochemical company Avantium is planning to build a factory to produce biodegradable plastic from plant sugars that can be used in bottles and other food and beverage containers.
Low Cost Renewable Energy:
The International Renewable Energy Agency predicts that renewable energy could underpin an economic recovery from Covid-19 while at the same time tackling the global climate emergency. (However, I am not sure they have reckoned with the carbon industries determination to stay in business).
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the average levelized cost of energy generated by large scale solar plants has fallen a further 4% to $US 50/MWh since October, while onshore wind costs dropped 9% to $US 44/MWh.
Abu Dhabi’s 1.5 GW solar power tender drew a world record low solar bid of $US 0.0135/kWh, less than half the once record-breaking price achieved just three years ago for the 1.17 GW Noor Abu Dhabi solar park.
In terms of new solar installations, China was the world’s largest PV market for the third year in a row with 30.1 GW of fresh capacity in the 12 months to the end of December 2019, followed by the United States with 13.3 GW and Japan with 7.7 GW.
India’s cumulative installed rooftop solar capacity reached 5.4 GW by the end of December 2019. The government now aims to have deployed 40 GW of rooftop PV by the end of 2023.
According to the University of Sheffield, British solar power created a new generation record of 9.68 GW in mid-April, largely due to the vastly improved air pollution levels resulting in clearer skies.
Australia’s Hornsdale Power Reserve, the world’s biggest operational lithium-ion battery, has been upgraded to a rating of 150 MW/193.5 MWh, dwarfing any other lithium-ion battery system in operation around the globe. In the meantime, the United Kingdom is building the 100 MW Minety project while in the USA several large batteries under construction including the 300 MW Vistra Moss Landing project and the massive 409 MW Florida Power and Light Manatee project.
The EIA has reported that the number of solar and wind generation sites co-located with batteries in America has grown from 19 paired sites in 2016 to 53 paired sites in 2019, with another 56 facilities pairing renewable energy and battery storage to come online by the end of 2023.
Siemens Gamesa has launched the world’s largest offshore wind turbine, which can generate 14MW using a 222-metre rotor diameter.
Edinburgh-based global sustainable energy company Simec Atlantis has completed the installation of a massive tidal stream turbine, with a rotor diameter of 18 metres, in the Zhoushan archipelago in China.
Sweden has followed Austria and other European countries in closing its last coal fired power station.
The IEA predicts that low-carbon technologies will be the largest source of global electricity generation, reaching 40% of the power mix in 2020.
Australia’s 15 GW Asian Renewable Energy Hub has been recommended for approval by environmental authorities in the Pilbara region. The project was originally intended to export clean energy to Jakarta and Singapore via subsea, high voltage DC cables but its focus has shifted to domestic industrial consumers.
We know that the oil industry is suffering as oil prices wallow, but LNG prices have also collapsed with futures prices in Asia set at $US 2.05 per MMBtu compared to 2018 prices of around $US 12 per MMBTU. More than 10 major gas projects have been cancelled including ExxonMobil’s Rovuma project in Mozambique.
Mass Data Mining and Storage:
The Federal Court of Australia ruled in an appeal that Google is responsible for misleading and deceptive advertising that uses the name of a company to direct traffic to a competitor's site. In the four cases cited, searches for a company's name brought up sponsored links containing that name, but the links led to the websites of competitors that had paid for the ads.
Google has abandoned its plans for a smart city in Toronto.
Automation Based Unemployment:
The Covid virus has led to a major increase in the use of AI based chatbots in call centres. They are expected to remain operational after lockdown leading to fewer call centre staff.
Autonomous Electric Vehicles:
Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that electric models will account for 58% of new passenger car sales globally by 2040 and 31% of the global car fleet. Electric vehicles will also make up 67% of all buses on the road, 47% of two-wheelers and 24% of light commercial vehicles. However, due to Covid, sales of electric cars are expected to drop 18% in 2020, while sales of internal combustion engine cars will fall by 23%. BNEF estimates the world will need around 290 million charging points costing around $500 billion by 2040. BNEF calculates that the electrification of transport to date has reduced oil demand by almost 1 million barrels of oil increasing to 17.6 million barrels per day by 2040. Of course, electric vehicles of all types will also add 5.2% to global electricity demand by 2040.
BNEF calculates that there are currently more than 7 million passenger EVs on the world’s roads, together with more than 500,000 e-buses, almost 400,000 electric delivery vans and trucks, and 184 million electric mopeds, scooters and motorcycles.
In February 2020 Tesla’s signed an agreement with Chinese battery maker CATL to procure low-cost, no-cobalt, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery packs to make the Model 3 at its Shanghai Gigafactory. These batteries could significantly reduce the price of electric cars, with battery pack prices of $US 80/kWh well below the $US 100/kWh price needed for price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles.
Tesla is re-engineering its car designs so that the car can act as a home battery during periods of high electrical tariffs.
Milan plans to reduce car use after lockdown by turning 35 kilometres of streets over to cyclists and pedestrians.
Southern Africa:
Eskom has issued an expression of interest to seek proposals on how to refurbish three fossil fuel power plants to be decommissioned in the current decade. Eskom plans to convert old coal mines and plants into gas, solar and wind power generators
A recent study commissioned by Eskom itself indicates that burning of coal in its power stations results in significant health impacts and more than 300 premature deaths a year. It is therefore clear that persons, families and communities in Mpumalanga and further afield suffer significant damages from Eskom’s pollution, including chronic illness, and the loss of life, ability to work and income.
Sasol has launched a request for information process to supply its South African operations with 600 MW of renewable energy.
South Africa’s environment minister has at long last laid down the law to Eskom requiring that the utility close and repair the highly polluting Kendal power station units.
China is planning to build a coal-fired power plant in Zimbabwe.
Some Lockdown Reading:
For those of you short of something thought provoking to stimulate your minds during lockdown, here are four suggestions.
Shoshana Zuboff’s The Age of Surveillance Capitalism details how the big tech companies have so taken over our lives that we daren’t twitch for fear of the movement being recorded, stored and analysed alongside all your other data, including every keystroke on your keyboard. Scary stuff, but you do need to stay focused in the first couple of chapters before she launches into the meat of the subject.
In an article in the Intercept, Naomi Klein describes how the same big tech companies are using the covid pandemic as a smokescreen to further advance their intrusion into our personal lives:
https://theintercept.com/2020/05/08/andrew-cuomo-eric-schmidt-coronavirus-tech-shock-doctrine/
On a more positive note, Ramez Naam’s analysis of how solar energy prices continue to drop will fascinate even those of you not interested in energy and numbers
https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-cheap-2020/
Finally, if you want a roller coaster, real life thriller Rachel Madow’s Blowout brings together America, Russia and the oil industry, with Equatorial Guinea playing a bit part.
Australia’s Commission for the Human Future produced a widely publicised report Surviving and Thriving in the 21st Century which details ten risks to life on the planet. Most of them are covered regularly in these Musings apart from the danger of a nuclear war.
One topic they didn’t cover was the future of money. And here I don’t mean the grubby bank notes and coins that no one is prepared to accept any more for fear of picking up a covid infection. Everywhere, countries are madly printing cash to pay for keeping their economies going while at the same time coping with the pandemic. Back in the old days of the gold standard you could, theoretically at least, take your dollar bill to the Reserve Bank and swap it for a fraction of a nugget. But now countries are running up massive deficits with no plan for how they will pay the interest, let alone reduce the deficit. Higher taxes on the rich and a big dollop of inflation could help but neither is palatable to most governments. It’s a strange world we live in.
People Change:
According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), malaria infected more than 228 million people worldwide in 2018 and killed more than 405,000, the majority of them children under five. Some 94% of global deaths from malaria occurred in sub-Saharan Africa. The WHO has warned deaths from malaria in 2020 across sub-Saharan Africa could double to more than 750,000 if work to prevent the disease through the delivery of insecticide-treated nets and antimalarial medicines is disrupted by Covid-19.
A paper published by Melbourne based researchers in Cell & Host Microbe claimed that they had found a way to prevent malaria from progressing from the livers of mice.
The WHO and the European Investment Bank are joining forces to create an African malaria fund.
In my last Musing I reported on an American study that showed higher numbers of Covid deaths in polluted areas. Now similar research analysing coronavirus deaths across 66 administrative regions in Italy, Spain, France and Germany found 78% of them occurred in the five most polluted regions.
In a paper published in Nature Energy, American health researchers found that asthma attacks and asthma-related emergency department visits in communities near coal-fired power stations fell in the years after those power stations closed.
Migration:
Annual statistics published by the Norwegian Refugee Council’s Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre calculated that by the end of 2019, 45.7 million people were internally displaced as a result of violence in 61 countries.
Climate Change and the Environment:
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates there is a 75% chance that 2020 will be the hottest year since measurements began with no impact from El Niño or La Niña conditions. Carbon Brief has come to a similar conclusion. The first three months of 2020 were the second warmest on record, behind the first quarter of super-El Niño-fuelled 2016.
According to the European State of the Climate 2019 Report, Europe experienced its hottest year on record in 2019, with periods of exceptional heat in February, June and July, and one of the wettest Novembers on record. Previous records were broken by only a small margin, but the findings confirmed that 11 out of the 12 warmest years in Europe have occurred in the past two decades.
Near-record sea surface temperatures have driven extensive coral bleaching during the southern hemisphere summer.
New research suggests the spectacular eruptions of the Kīlauea volcano in Hawaii in 2018 were triggered by extreme rainfall in the preceding months raising the possibility that climate breakdown, which is causing more extreme weather, could lead to an increase in eruptions around the world.
A survey of 100 top climate scientists published in Climate and Atmospheric Science predicts a sea level rise of one metre by 2100 unless Greenland and Antarctic ice melting is halted.
The World Resources Institute calculates that 147 million people will be hit by floods from rivers and coasts annually by 2030, compared with 72 million people in 2010. Damages to urban property will increase from US$ 174 billion to US$ 712 billion per year.
The biggest assessment of global insect abundances to date shows a drop of almost 25% in the last 30 years, with accelerating declines in Europe.
The International Seabed Authority is planning loosen restrictions on deep-sea mining later in 2020.
As a result of a court ruling in a case brought by the Urgenda Foundation, the Dutch government has announced measures including huge cuts to coal use, garden greening and limits on livestock herds as part of its plan to lower emissions to comply with the ruling.
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund sold its stakes in Glencore, Anglo American and RWE as they breached the fund’s guidelines on use of coal. Legal and General Investment Management, Britain’s largest asset manager, will oppose the re-election of Exxon Mobil’s chairman over what it called a lack of ambition on tackling climate change.
Ethiopia has completed the construction of the massive Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile and plans to start filling it when the rainy season starts in July, despite protests from Egypt and Sudan which are dependant on the Nile for their livelihoods.
Food and Water:
Dutch biochemical company Avantium is planning to build a factory to produce biodegradable plastic from plant sugars that can be used in bottles and other food and beverage containers.
Low Cost Renewable Energy:
The International Renewable Energy Agency predicts that renewable energy could underpin an economic recovery from Covid-19 while at the same time tackling the global climate emergency. (However, I am not sure they have reckoned with the carbon industries determination to stay in business).
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the average levelized cost of energy generated by large scale solar plants has fallen a further 4% to $US 50/MWh since October, while onshore wind costs dropped 9% to $US 44/MWh.
Abu Dhabi’s 1.5 GW solar power tender drew a world record low solar bid of $US 0.0135/kWh, less than half the once record-breaking price achieved just three years ago for the 1.17 GW Noor Abu Dhabi solar park.
In terms of new solar installations, China was the world’s largest PV market for the third year in a row with 30.1 GW of fresh capacity in the 12 months to the end of December 2019, followed by the United States with 13.3 GW and Japan with 7.7 GW.
India’s cumulative installed rooftop solar capacity reached 5.4 GW by the end of December 2019. The government now aims to have deployed 40 GW of rooftop PV by the end of 2023.
According to the University of Sheffield, British solar power created a new generation record of 9.68 GW in mid-April, largely due to the vastly improved air pollution levels resulting in clearer skies.
Australia’s Hornsdale Power Reserve, the world’s biggest operational lithium-ion battery, has been upgraded to a rating of 150 MW/193.5 MWh, dwarfing any other lithium-ion battery system in operation around the globe. In the meantime, the United Kingdom is building the 100 MW Minety project while in the USA several large batteries under construction including the 300 MW Vistra Moss Landing project and the massive 409 MW Florida Power and Light Manatee project.
The EIA has reported that the number of solar and wind generation sites co-located with batteries in America has grown from 19 paired sites in 2016 to 53 paired sites in 2019, with another 56 facilities pairing renewable energy and battery storage to come online by the end of 2023.
Siemens Gamesa has launched the world’s largest offshore wind turbine, which can generate 14MW using a 222-metre rotor diameter.
Edinburgh-based global sustainable energy company Simec Atlantis has completed the installation of a massive tidal stream turbine, with a rotor diameter of 18 metres, in the Zhoushan archipelago in China.
Sweden has followed Austria and other European countries in closing its last coal fired power station.
The IEA predicts that low-carbon technologies will be the largest source of global electricity generation, reaching 40% of the power mix in 2020.
Australia’s 15 GW Asian Renewable Energy Hub has been recommended for approval by environmental authorities in the Pilbara region. The project was originally intended to export clean energy to Jakarta and Singapore via subsea, high voltage DC cables but its focus has shifted to domestic industrial consumers.
We know that the oil industry is suffering as oil prices wallow, but LNG prices have also collapsed with futures prices in Asia set at $US 2.05 per MMBtu compared to 2018 prices of around $US 12 per MMBTU. More than 10 major gas projects have been cancelled including ExxonMobil’s Rovuma project in Mozambique.
Mass Data Mining and Storage:
The Federal Court of Australia ruled in an appeal that Google is responsible for misleading and deceptive advertising that uses the name of a company to direct traffic to a competitor's site. In the four cases cited, searches for a company's name brought up sponsored links containing that name, but the links led to the websites of competitors that had paid for the ads.
Google has abandoned its plans for a smart city in Toronto.
Automation Based Unemployment:
The Covid virus has led to a major increase in the use of AI based chatbots in call centres. They are expected to remain operational after lockdown leading to fewer call centre staff.
Autonomous Electric Vehicles:
Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that electric models will account for 58% of new passenger car sales globally by 2040 and 31% of the global car fleet. Electric vehicles will also make up 67% of all buses on the road, 47% of two-wheelers and 24% of light commercial vehicles. However, due to Covid, sales of electric cars are expected to drop 18% in 2020, while sales of internal combustion engine cars will fall by 23%. BNEF estimates the world will need around 290 million charging points costing around $500 billion by 2040. BNEF calculates that the electrification of transport to date has reduced oil demand by almost 1 million barrels of oil increasing to 17.6 million barrels per day by 2040. Of course, electric vehicles of all types will also add 5.2% to global electricity demand by 2040.
BNEF calculates that there are currently more than 7 million passenger EVs on the world’s roads, together with more than 500,000 e-buses, almost 400,000 electric delivery vans and trucks, and 184 million electric mopeds, scooters and motorcycles.
In February 2020 Tesla’s signed an agreement with Chinese battery maker CATL to procure low-cost, no-cobalt, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery packs to make the Model 3 at its Shanghai Gigafactory. These batteries could significantly reduce the price of electric cars, with battery pack prices of $US 80/kWh well below the $US 100/kWh price needed for price parity with internal combustion engine vehicles.
Tesla is re-engineering its car designs so that the car can act as a home battery during periods of high electrical tariffs.
Milan plans to reduce car use after lockdown by turning 35 kilometres of streets over to cyclists and pedestrians.
Southern Africa:
Eskom has issued an expression of interest to seek proposals on how to refurbish three fossil fuel power plants to be decommissioned in the current decade. Eskom plans to convert old coal mines and plants into gas, solar and wind power generators
A recent study commissioned by Eskom itself indicates that burning of coal in its power stations results in significant health impacts and more than 300 premature deaths a year. It is therefore clear that persons, families and communities in Mpumalanga and further afield suffer significant damages from Eskom’s pollution, including chronic illness, and the loss of life, ability to work and income.
Sasol has launched a request for information process to supply its South African operations with 600 MW of renewable energy.
South Africa’s environment minister has at long last laid down the law to Eskom requiring that the utility close and repair the highly polluting Kendal power station units.
China is planning to build a coal-fired power plant in Zimbabwe.
Some Lockdown Reading:
For those of you short of something thought provoking to stimulate your minds during lockdown, here are four suggestions.
Shoshana Zuboff’s The Age of Surveillance Capitalism details how the big tech companies have so taken over our lives that we daren’t twitch for fear of the movement being recorded, stored and analysed alongside all your other data, including every keystroke on your keyboard. Scary stuff, but you do need to stay focused in the first couple of chapters before she launches into the meat of the subject.
In an article in the Intercept, Naomi Klein describes how the same big tech companies are using the covid pandemic as a smokescreen to further advance their intrusion into our personal lives:
https://theintercept.com/2020/05/08/andrew-cuomo-eric-schmidt-coronavirus-tech-shock-doctrine/
On a more positive note, Ramez Naam’s analysis of how solar energy prices continue to drop will fascinate even those of you not interested in energy and numbers
https://rameznaam.com/2020/05/14/solars-future-is-insanely-cheap-2020/
Finally, if you want a roller coaster, real life thriller Rachel Madow’s Blowout brings together America, Russia and the oil industry, with Equatorial Guinea playing a bit part.
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