Apologies for the long delay since my last musing but I have been off travelling again. However, the main reason for my silence is that I have written a book using all the data I have collected over the years for my MBendi newsletters and subsequent musings.
As I’ve collated my bits and pieces of information, so I have identified nine major trends that are sweeping the globe. The population of the world is growing and growing older. Climate change and environmental degradation could lead to the death and displacement of millions each year. Migration and urbanisation continue unabated as people seek greener pastures. Low cost renewable energy is leading to the death of oil, gas and coal. Information is power and mass data storage and mining is empowering a handful of companies and countries. Automation is leading to increased unemployment while automated electric vehicles are taking to the roads, railways and airspace. The gap between rich and poor continues to widen. Finally, globalisation in all its forms continues apace.
Each of these trends reminds me of an elephant making its way across the plain, effortlessly swatting bushes and trees aside as it wanders or of a swarm of locusts munching across the landscape, oblivious to the humans and habitations in its path. We can see them coming from a long way off but there’s little we can do to head them off. Instead we have to adapt as best we can. I have included a chapter suggesting ways countries, companies and individuals can identify the opportunities and challenges arising out of these trends and prepare accordingly.
Many forecasts today take what has happened in the past and simply extrapolate that data into the future as a smooth trend line. I worry that we might be about to experience radical changes that deviate significantly from the past and take place faster than we expect. We need to be ready for any sudden up or down swings.
That said, the economist Branko Milanovic, as an aside in one of his books on inequality, described how he had tried to read all the major economic forecasts made during the second half of the twentieth century and found every one of them completely wrong. Based on that analysis, my guesses about the future will also be wrong but at least you will know the facts and opinions I have used in my analysis and can draw your own, maybe different, conclusions. Most of my sources are listed in the extensive References section.
Finally, as a case study, I have included a blueprint for how South Africa might prepare for this uncertain future. South Africa, poised on the cusp between the developed and the developing worlds, contains a fascinating mixture of rich and poor, modern and traditional, people speaking many languages and worshipping many gods. Also that’s where my family live. Hopefully, as you read on, you can use this blueprint to mentally prepare a similar blueprint for your own country or company.
When I started out, my plan was to find a publisher who would create a paper book that could be sold in a bookstore. It might even have made me famous and earned me millions. But that’s not what I want and not what will help the young people for whom the future holds many more years of living than me. Instead I want people to find the real facts, to think hard, to debate intelligently and, most of all, to act decisively, together.
There’s another reason why an electronic book appeals. To go the paper route I would have to freeze my text and then wait months for a publisher to bite and start the presses rolling. In the meantime more information will have come to hand making my original script out of date.
So this is going to be an electronic publication. I am going to start by sending it to you, the readers of my musings newsletters. If they like what I have written, they could then send it on to thoughtful friends who will do likewise. That way, in the space of a couple of weeks it could reach millions instead of just the hundreds who might see it in a bookshop. And every few weeks I could publish a new edition and post it on this website. You too can do likewise by downloading my book using the link below.
My forecast is not the final answer. I am sure you are going to have constructive criticisms and better ideas than me. I invite you to use the Brian's Blog to share these with the rest of us.
Good reading and inspirational thinking!
As I’ve collated my bits and pieces of information, so I have identified nine major trends that are sweeping the globe. The population of the world is growing and growing older. Climate change and environmental degradation could lead to the death and displacement of millions each year. Migration and urbanisation continue unabated as people seek greener pastures. Low cost renewable energy is leading to the death of oil, gas and coal. Information is power and mass data storage and mining is empowering a handful of companies and countries. Automation is leading to increased unemployment while automated electric vehicles are taking to the roads, railways and airspace. The gap between rich and poor continues to widen. Finally, globalisation in all its forms continues apace.
Each of these trends reminds me of an elephant making its way across the plain, effortlessly swatting bushes and trees aside as it wanders or of a swarm of locusts munching across the landscape, oblivious to the humans and habitations in its path. We can see them coming from a long way off but there’s little we can do to head them off. Instead we have to adapt as best we can. I have included a chapter suggesting ways countries, companies and individuals can identify the opportunities and challenges arising out of these trends and prepare accordingly.
Many forecasts today take what has happened in the past and simply extrapolate that data into the future as a smooth trend line. I worry that we might be about to experience radical changes that deviate significantly from the past and take place faster than we expect. We need to be ready for any sudden up or down swings.
That said, the economist Branko Milanovic, as an aside in one of his books on inequality, described how he had tried to read all the major economic forecasts made during the second half of the twentieth century and found every one of them completely wrong. Based on that analysis, my guesses about the future will also be wrong but at least you will know the facts and opinions I have used in my analysis and can draw your own, maybe different, conclusions. Most of my sources are listed in the extensive References section.
Finally, as a case study, I have included a blueprint for how South Africa might prepare for this uncertain future. South Africa, poised on the cusp between the developed and the developing worlds, contains a fascinating mixture of rich and poor, modern and traditional, people speaking many languages and worshipping many gods. Also that’s where my family live. Hopefully, as you read on, you can use this blueprint to mentally prepare a similar blueprint for your own country or company.
When I started out, my plan was to find a publisher who would create a paper book that could be sold in a bookstore. It might even have made me famous and earned me millions. But that’s not what I want and not what will help the young people for whom the future holds many more years of living than me. Instead I want people to find the real facts, to think hard, to debate intelligently and, most of all, to act decisively, together.
There’s another reason why an electronic book appeals. To go the paper route I would have to freeze my text and then wait months for a publisher to bite and start the presses rolling. In the meantime more information will have come to hand making my original script out of date.
So this is going to be an electronic publication. I am going to start by sending it to you, the readers of my musings newsletters. If they like what I have written, they could then send it on to thoughtful friends who will do likewise. That way, in the space of a couple of weeks it could reach millions instead of just the hundreds who might see it in a bookshop. And every few weeks I could publish a new edition and post it on this website. You too can do likewise by downloading my book using the link below.
My forecast is not the final answer. I am sure you are going to have constructive criticisms and better ideas than me. I invite you to use the Brian's Blog to share these with the rest of us.
Good reading and inspirational thinking!
| guessing_our_future_by_brian_paxton_201711.pdf |